As the US-Israel military campaign against Iran — codenamed Operation Epic Fury — approaches its one-month mark in late March 2026, experts and policymakers are divided over whether the conflict will conclude swiftly or spiral into a prolonged regional or even global crisis. President Donald Trump has projected confidence that the war could wind down soon, while many analysts warn of serious risks of escalation and lasting economic damage.
Trump has repeatedly described indirect talks with Iran as “very good and productive,” claiming Tehran is eager for a deal but hesitant to admit it publicly. The administration sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistani intermediaries, demanding a rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, limits on ballistic missiles, reduced support for proxy groups, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange, the plan offers phased sanctions relief.
Iran, however, has publicly rejected the proposal as “maximalist and unreasonable,” issuing its own five-point counter-demands that include immediate cessation of attacks, international guarantees against future aggression, war reparations, a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts, and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated there have been “no real negotiations,” though Tehran says it is still reviewing elements of the US plan.
Two Possible Scenarios
Short War (4–6 Weeks):
Some US officials, including House Speaker Mike Johnson and CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper, suggest the operation is “on plan or ahead of plan” and could wrap up soon. If Iran accepts key US demands or faces further military pressure — including the recent deployment of thousands of troops from the 82nd Airborne Division and additional Marines — a temporary one-month ceasefire could materialize. This scenario would allow gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, stabilization of oil markets, and de-escalation of proxy conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
Prolonged or Wider Conflict:
Many analysts fear the opposite. Deep mistrust remains high following the ᴀssᴀssination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the appointment of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader. Iran’s continued missile and drone attacks, combined with its effective disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, show Tehran’s determination to raise costs for the US and its allies. A US campaign to forcibly reopen the strait (already underway in limited form) could lead to direct naval clashes, attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, and broader involvement of regional actors.
Economic and Energy Shockwaves
The conflict has already delivered a major blow to global energy markets. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20% of the world’s oil and significant LNG volumes normally pᴀss — has caused sharp volatility. Oil prices have surged and remain elevated, with Brent crude frequently trading above $100–$120 per barrel amid uncertainty.
For import-dependent economies like Vietnam, the impacts are direct and painful:
Higher fuel and electricity costs
Increased transportation and logistics expenses
Potential inflation in food and consumer goods
Pressure on manufacturing and export sectors
A full or prolonged closure could push prices toward $150 or higher in extreme scenarios, triggering global demand destruction, higher inflation, and slower economic growth. Shipping rerouting, skyrocketing war-risk insurance, and disruptions to supply chains have already affected trade routes critical to Asia.
Beyond energy, the war risks wider spillover: intensified fighting with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and possible involvement of other proxies could destabilize the entire region and strain international alliances.
What Comes Next?
The coming weeks will be decisive. US military reinforcements, including paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne and Marine units, provide Washington with greater leverage but also raise the stakes for direct confrontation. Diplomatic efforts through Pakistan, Egypt, and other mediators continue, yet the gap between the two sides’ positions remains wide.
Optimists point to Trump’s willingness to postpone strikes on Iranian power plants as a sign of flexibility. Pessimists warn that Iran’s new hardline leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei, combined with domestic pressure to resist, makes compromise difficult.
Ultimately, whether this war ends in weeks with a negotiated off-ramp or drags on — potentially escalating into a broader conflict with severe global economic consequences — will depend on the balance between continued military pressure and serious diplomatic breakthroughs.
For now, the world holds its breath as one of the most consequential confrontations of the 21st century unfolds, with oil prices, supply chains, and regional stability hanging in the balance.
