Did you know that a new Star Wars movie is coming out next year? Presumably adapted from Jon Favreau’s original plans for The Mandalorian season 4, The Mandalorian and Grogu will bring Pedro Pascal’s Din Djarin and the delightful Grogu to the big screen at last. By then, it will have been seven years since the last Star Wars movie.

The Mandalorian and Grogu comes out on May 22, meaning we’re eight months out from what the fans eagerly hope will be Star Wars‘ return to the box office. The problem, though, is that it increasingly feels as though Lucasfilm is repeating a marketing mistake that led to a $393 million box office bomb.

Why One Star Wars Spinoff Became The Franchise’s Biggest Box Office Bomb

It’s hard to believe now, but Disney initially hoped that Star Wars would be an annual big screen event – and even seemed to be testing the waters for two a year when Solo: A Star Wars Story released in May 2018. The problem, though, was that Disney appeared to believe there was no way a Star Wars movie could fail, and didn’t market it.

Solo was due to release in close proximity to Avengers: Infinity War, an epic blockbuster that Disney rightly hoped to turn into a cinematic event (it was also releasing on the heels of the much-anticipated ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool 2). This meant a strong marketing approach was necessary, but Lucasfilm didn’t really try with the Star Wars spinoff.

Marketing for Solo was generally lackluster, a curious blend of overconfidence and embarrᴀssment. The first trailer didn’t even release until February 2018, just three months before release, and it was oddly reluctant to show Alden Ehrenreich’s Han Solo. As I noted at the time:

“It was as though Lucasfilm believed there was already an appeтιтe to see him, and that by holding the “reveal” back for the film they’d excite viewers. In reality, far from being curious, the majority of potential viewers were unconvinced.”

The Mandalorian and Grogu Risks Repeating Solo’s Mistake

At the moment, it really does feel as though Lucasfilm is at risk of repeating Solo‘s mistake with The Mandalorian and Grogu. Filming wrapped at the start of December 2024, and a first trailer has been prepared and shown at events like Star Wars Celebration. But those are for the diehard fans; most people have no idea a new Star Wars movie is coming.

The point can be illustrated by comparing The Mandalorian and Grogu to Avengers: Doomsday, the December 2026 release that’s being marketed much more like it should be another box office event. Avengers: Doomsday is red in this Google Trends chart, while The Mandalorian and Grogu is blue (it runs from January 2024, when the Star Wars movie was announced).

Notice that the little promotion that has taken place has barely made a dent; there’s an appreciable increase in interest around Star Wars Celebration, but it’s so very muted.

Avengers: Doomsday’s Marketing Is Underlining The Point

Avengers: Doomsday was once supposed to release on May 1, 2026, which would have made it direct compeтιтion for The Mandalorian and Grogu. Disney thankfully moved it, but it’s striking that the Avengers blockbuster is still being pushed in a way the Star Wars movie is not. A promo yesterday revealed the MCU’s Doctor Doom design and so much more.

To give a sense of contrast, IMDb currently only lists four members of the cast for The Mandalorian and Grogu; Pedro Pascal, Jeremy Allen White as the voice of Rotta the Hutt, Sigourney Weaver as a New Republic leader, and Jonny Coyne as an Imperial warlord (it omits Steve Blum’s Zeb, also confirmed).

The Star Wars fandom is eager for something new, something fresh, to talk about. Major Star Wars YouTubers are either resorting to controversial takes in an attempt to get clicks, or simply appealing to their audience to ask them what they should talk about. There’s desperate hope that every event will finally lead to the release of that trailer.

My own guess right now is that Lucasfilm intend to release the first trailer alongside Avatar: Fire and Ash. That would put the movie on the radar for a lot of potential viewers, but it’s in danger of becoming too late; there’s so little engagement right now, and the fanbase that would help market the movie is becoming too diminished.

Star Wars‘ big screen return should be a blockbuster event in its own right, pushed with the same eagerness as Avengers: Doomsday. This time, viewers aren’t unconvinced; they simply aren’t even aware the movie is coming. If Lucasfilm hold back too late, then it may not be possible to correct this problem.