There is still a long way to go until the 2026 Academy Awards, but that does not prevent predictions from being made. While Venice is still to come, big cinematic events, including the Sundance Film Festival and Cannes Film Festival, have already started the conversation regarding the year’s biggest films.
The films from those festivals are also starting to pick up distribution, and thus, have release dates announced. Lynne Ramsay’s Die My Love, which got good reviews out of Cannes last month, recently scored a November 7 release date.
Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident, which won the Palme d’Or, also just got a release date. It will be distributed by Neon and come out on October 15. End-of-year release dates like this, especially those that come in November or December, position films in prime awards season, bettering their Oscar chances.
Sundance can be more of a mixed bag than Cannes when it comes to its reputation with Academy Award achievement. Some of its films see their notoriety relegated more to the indie circuit, while a select few will get Oscar recognition. One Sundance movie from this year is getting big Oscar buzz, and its release date only helps.
Train Dreams Is Officially Coming Out In The Thick Of Awards Season
It Will Be Released By Netflix
Train Dreams has a promising chance at the Oscars this season. The movie is a drama about the life of a logger and railroad worker in the 20th century. The film is based on the book by Denis Johnson and is directed by Clint Bentley, who adapted its script with Greg Kwedar.
Train Dreams stars Joel Edgerton, William H. Macy, Paul Schneider, and Felicity Jones. Jones is herself a two-time Oscar nominee, bringing Academy clout to the project.
After its Sundance premiere in February, Train Dreams was picked up by Netflix. The streamer has since confirmed that the movie will be released on November 21. Late November is considered the height of awards season, so this is a strategic distribution window for the film.
Train Dreams Was Already Predicted To Be A Major Oscar Contender
Best Actor And Best Picture Seem Likely
Even though the public has yet to see the film, Train Dreams has already gained some momentum and has a near-perfect 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. This score includes reviews from 36 critics, but is subject to change as the film comes out more widely.
ScreenRant‘s Mae Abdulbaki gave Train Dreams 6 out of 10 stars, praising Edgerton’s performance but taking some issue with its overextended storytelling.
With this strong debut, Train Dreams has already been predicted to be a major potential Oscar contender. While there are numerous awards possible, among the most likely are a nod for Best Picture and Best Actor.
It also seems fair to guess that Jones could score a Best Supporting Actress nomination. After all, she has done so twice before, and both times were for playing wives, as she does in Train Dreams.
Regardless of what exactly it picks up during awards season, some sort of Oscar recognition for Train Dreams seems likely.
Netflix Has A Strong Track Record With Oscar Nominations In Recent Years
They Have A Solid Best Picture Streak
On the one hand, not having a major theatrical release (though it will have to have some qualifying run) could work against Train Dreams. However, Netflix has had a pretty strong track record with Oscar nominations as of late. This especially applies to Best Picture.
In fact, the streamer has boasted a Best Picture nominee every year for the past six award cycles. These movies include Emilia Pérez, Maestro, All Quiet on the Western Front, Don’t Look Up, Mank, and The Irishman.
Though its films have been nominated several times, Netflix has never actually taken home the coveted Best Picture award.
The streamer has also managed nominations in other categories. 2023’s Nyad, which did not wind up being nominated for Best Picture, got Oscar nominations for both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. The same could happen for Train Dreams if it were to get acting nominations without Best Picture.
This pattern is definitely good news for Train Dreams, as it means their distributor has established an ongoing positive relationship with the Academy.
That said, being a Netflix movie could work against its chances of actually winning Best Picture. Though its films have been nominated several times, Netflix has never actually taken home the coveted Best Picture award. As such, going past the nomination stage could prove challenging for Train Dreams.
Train Dreams’ Oscar Chances Could Come Down To Netflix’s Other Movies
The Streamer Will Most Likely Rally Behind Just One Film
In order to be the most strategic about its nomination chances, Netflix tends to rally its campaign around one movie when it comes to the major categories. Last year, that was Emilia Pérez, which earned a record 13 Academy Award nominations.
Train Dreams is far from Netflix’s only film coming out later this year that could get Academy attention since November will also see the release of Guillermo del Toro’s rendition of Frankenstein. The movie adapts a classic text and features two-time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz, upping its chances.
There is also reason to believe that Netflix might opt to rally behind Frankenstein. Del Toro is an established director who has already earned Netflix an Oscar for Best Animated Feature film in 2022 for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. As such, he has an existing relationship with the streamer and a proven track record that may lead them to want to back it.
As such, it is possible that Frankenstein, or another late fall release, could become a greater priority for Netflix than Train Dreams. After all, the Sundance hit is helmed by a director with no Oscar wins to his name, though he did just recently score a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination for last year’s Sing Sing.
Despite its positive reviews and clout coming out of Sundance, Train Dreams is the bigger risk. Something like Frankenstein is a lot more recognizable to the average Academy voter, and it has a more A-list team behind it both in front of and behind the camera.
Ultimately, Train Dreams‘ Oscar chances will really stem from who Netflix wants to back in their campaign. This campaign funding will make or break a smaller movie like Train Dreams, which needs visibility and distributor backing to succeed in awards season. Whether it will come out on top will likely not materialize until its late November release date.
