M3GAN 2.0 has significantly underperformed during its opening weekend compared to the original smash hit. 2023’s M3GAN followed roboticist Gemma (Allison Williams) accidentally programming an AI doll, M3GAN (Amie Donald and Jenna Davis) to violently defend her orphaned niece Cady (Violet McGraw). The viral smash hit grossed $180 million against its reported $12 million budget.
The M3GAN 2.0 release kicked off two and a half years later. The new movie takes on more of a sci-fi-action bent, following M3GAN defending Gemma and Cady from an even more powerful robot named AMELIA (Ivanna Sakhno).
Per ᴅᴇᴀᴅline, as of Saturday morning, M3GAN 2.0 is projected to earn a 3-day opening weekend of $10.4 million at the domestic box office. This total falls considerably short of its original projections, which saw it earning $30 million or more.
It similarly falls short of the domestic opening weekend of the original M3GAN, which earned $30.4 million when it debuted in January 2023. However, that movie was the only major wide release of the weekend, whereas the sequel opened opposite the big-budget Brad Pitt racing movie F1: The Movie.
What This Means For M3GAN 2.0
The Franchise’s Future Is In Doubt
In general, it is somewhat unusual for a sequel to earn less than the original movie in the franchise, either during its opening weekend or at the overall worldwide box office. This is because original movies are more of an unknown quanтιтy, while sequels are part of a pre-established IP with brand recognition.
One reason for this could be the fact that M3GAN 2.0 reviews were more mixed, earning the movie a Rotten score of 57% on Rotten Tomatoes compared to the original’s Certified Fresh 93% score.
Below, see a breakdown of how M3GAN and M3GAN 2.0‘s opening weekends compare to other franchise-starting Blumhouse movies (or franchise-restarting, in the case of Halloween) and their immediate follow-ups:
|
Part 1 |
Domestic Debut |
Part 2 |
Domestic Debut |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Paranormal Activity (2009) |
$21.1 million (wk 5 wide expansion) |
Paranormal Activity 2 (2010) |
$40.7 million |
|
Insidious (2011) |
$13.3 million |
Insidious: Chapter 2 (2013) |
$40.3 million |
|
Sinister (2012) |
$18 million |
Sinister 2 (2015) |
$10.5 million |
|
The Purge (2013) |
$34 million |
The Purge: Anarchy (2014) |
$29.8 million |
|
Ouija (2014) |
$19.9 million |
Ouija: Origin of Evil (2016) |
$14.1 million |
|
Unfriended (2015) |
$15.8 million |
Unfriended: Dark Web (2018) |
$3.6 million |
|
Happy Death Day (2017) |
$26 million |
Happy Death Day 2U (2019) |
$9.5 million |
|
Halloween (2018) |
$76.2 million |
Halloween Kills (2021) |
$49.4 million |
|
M3GAN (2023) |
$30.4 million |
M3GAN 2.0 (2025) |
$10.4 million |
The second installment of a Blumhouse franchise underperforming in its debut compared to the original is not unprecedented, as this was also the case with Sinister, The Purge, Ouija, Unfriended, Happy Death Day, and Halloween. However, of that list, only the Purge and Halloween franchises got third installments.
Additionally, even though their second installments debuted lower than their predecessors, The Purge: Anarchy and Halloween Kills‘ opening weekends were both roughly equal to or even higher than the original M3GAN. This could indicate that, given its harsher fall, the M3GAN franchise might end as quickly as it began.
Our Take On The M3GAN 2.0 Debut
It May Not Spell Doom For M3GAN
Even though the ending of M3GAN 2.0 leaves the door open for a sequel, the movie may have to have good legs at the box office in order to get a third installment in the franchise greenlit. While it seems unlikely to be a runaway hit like the original movie, this is entirely possible.
Despite this inauspicious debut, M3GAN 2.0 could benefit from the fact that its reported budget is only about $25 million, which is roughly double the original movie’s $12 million. While its exact break-even point is unknown, this may only place the sequel’s estimated break-even point somewhere around $62.5 million, which is about one-third of what the original movie made.
Theaters keep half of ticket sales and publicity costs are not factored into production budgets, so movies often need to earn back two and a half times their budgets in order to break even in theaters.
If M3GAN 2.0 continues on its current trajectory, it could draw close to that total. While its reviews may ultimately prevent this from being the case, its relatively slim budget prevents this lukewarm debut from meaning that the movie is en route to disaster.
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Source: ᴅᴇᴀᴅline
