A Wall Street box office analyst has just discussed the performance of Elio, explaining how it sets a “concerning trend” for the future of Pixar’s movie output. Elio is the most recent original film to come out of Pixar, with it following up on the success of Inside Out 2, although it hasn’t been as much of a success itself.

Wall Street analyst Doug Creutz discussed the performance of Elio, stating that it could lead to “fewer original IP animated films” (via ᴅᴇᴀᴅline). According to Creutz, this could lead to a struggle in which Disney is forced to rely on old properties, hurting potential expansions at their theme parks and in other ventures.

Although it is easy to blame studios for the lack of original IPs, Creutz thinks that the blame lies with the audience. Elio is Pixar’s latest attempt to kickstart a new IP, and thanks to a lack of audience interest, it has failed. While it was critically received, the fact that it wasn’t part of a large franchise hurt its box office performance, disincentivizing Disney from continuing to make new movies.

“We expect movie studios to react to this clear trend by greenlighting fewer original IP animated films (don’t blame film execs, blame audiences)… The issue, of course, is that without new hit properties, a studio cannot grow its IP portfolio. This could be particularly problematic for Disney, which depends on its animated film/parks/consumer products flywheel to help drive overall company growth.”

What Elio’s Box Office Performance Means For Pixar

It Could Begin A Worrying Trend

As Creutz pointed out, Pixar will undoubtedly stop attempting original animated movies if they keep failing. While there are still some in the works, like Hoppers and Catto, Disney is a company, meaning that they cannot continue to dump millions of dollars into original animated movies if they aren’t seeing a return.

Pixar chief creative officer Pete Docter recently explained how Pixar decides which movies become franchises. According to Docter, the studio must have ideas for a sequel, and there must be audience interest in a sequel. So, even if the Elio team has all kinds of ideas for further stories, they won’t get made based on the film’s poor box office performance.

Our Take On Elio’s Box Office Performance

What Caused The Film’s Poor Opening?

There are several possible explanations for Elio‘s poor box office performance. It could be that the film’s marketing wasn’t enough, as some viewers seem to not know that the movie exists. It is possible that positive word of mouth could help, saving the box office, as was the case with Elemental.

Pixar releasing three movies directly to Disney+ during the COVID-19 Pandemic may have cheapened the Pixar brand. Audiences have now learned that original movies will come to Disney+ after only a few months, meaning some viewers who are excited to see Elio may simply be waiting until it hits the streaming service.