With New Release Date, Marvel Targets An Endgame Killer

The MCU’s latest slate changes may lead Avengers: Doomsday to destroy Avengers: Endgame at the box office. As Thunderbolts* concludes Phase 5 and The Fantastic Four: First Steps opens Phase 6, the wait for the Russo Bros.’ Avengers: Doomsday becomes more exciting, and anticipation for Avengers: Secret Wars rises. Naturally, expectations for both Avengers movies are incredibly high, as both films promise a bigger cinematic event than the record-breaking Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame double punch.

Such high expectations can become a problem for Marvel’s upcoming movies, as they could oversell the projects. Fortunately, both Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars have received positive updates, from Robert Downey Jr.’s return as Doctor Doom, Avengers: Doomsday‘s cast announcement, and the start of production. With everything in place to deliver the MCU’s franchise-spanning event, Avengers: Doomsday seems ready to start the race to the top of Marvel’s box office records.

How Much Avengers: Doomsday Would Need To Make To Beat Endgame

Avengers: Doomsday Needs To Earn More Than $3 Billion To Truly Match Endgame

Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom from SDCC 2024 and Iron Man injured from his death scene in Avengers: Endgame — Custom image by Milica Djordjevic

In 2019, Avengers: Endgame climbed to the top of the highest-grossing movies of all time, earning $2.799 billion worldwide before Avatar‘s re-release reclaimed its number one spot two years later. Avengers: Endgame also claimed multiple records, including “fastest movie to reach $1 billion, $1.5 billion, $2 billion, and $2.5 billion”. Adjusted for inflation, Avengers: Endgame‘s worldwide box office is around $3.2 billion, by 2025. Within the MCU, only 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home has come close to matching Avengers: Endgame‘s box office after 2019, reaching $1.92 billion during the pandemic.

Avengers: Doomsday would have to earn more than $3.2 billion in order to surpᴀss Avengers: Endgame‘s record-breaking performance in full, and it would need to reach $2.8 billion just to surpᴀss Avengers: Endgame‘s 2019 gross

The movie landscape has changed drastically since Avengers: Endgame‘s 2019 release. The COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of streaming, and the saturation of the superhero genre have reduced box office earnings drastically all across the board. Avengers: Doomsday would have to earn more than $3.2 billion in order to surpᴀss Avengers: Endgame‘s record-breaking performance in full, and it would need to reach $2.8 billion just to surpᴀss Avengers: Endgame‘s 2019 gross. However, matching Avengers: Infinity War‘s $2.048 billion ($2.3 billion, adjusted for inflation) would already be an impressive feat.

Avengers: Doomsday’s Release Change Gives It A Good SH๏τ At Beating Endgame

Doomsday’s December Delay Is Good News For Its Box Office Prospects

Robert Downey Jr.’s Tony Stark from Avengers: Endgame, Captain America from when he fights himself in Endgame, and Doctor Doom in the background — Custom image by César García

Matching Avengers: Endgame‘s full box office gross seems like an unlikely feat for Avengers: Doomsday in the current cinematic landscape, though Marvel’s next Avengers crossover recently got a valuable push. Both Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars got delayed seven months each, to December 2026 and December 2027, respectively. Apart from giving them more time for production and post-production, both Avengers movies’ new December release date offers them the chance to join a growing club of high-grossing blockbusters. After all, December is the month when most of the highest-grossing movies of all time have been released.

Five of the top ten highest-grossing movies were released in December. Avatar was released in December 2009 and grossed $2.93 billion, Avatar: The Way of Water was released in December 2022 and grossed $2.32 billion, тιтanic was released in December 1999 and grossed $2.25 billion, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was released in December 2015 and grossed $2.07 billion, and Spider-Man: No Way Home was released in December 2021 and grossed $1.92 billion. Standout exceptions were Avengers: Infinity War, which was released in April 2018 and grossed $2.05 billion; Avengers: Endgame, which was released in April 2019 and grossed $2.79 billion; and Ne Zha 2, which was released in Februrary 2025 and grossed $2.2 billion.

The Challenges For Avengers: Doomsday Beating Endgame

Avengers: Doomsday’s Road To $3.2 Billion Looks Tougher Than Endgame’s Path To $2.8 Billion

A $3.3 billion box office goal is a tall task for any movie, even for one backed by the most successful movie franchise of all time. Avengers: Doomsday‘s packed cast and multiversal premise are the Phase 6 movie’s biggest ᴀssets, but there are also a few extra challenges it has to face in December 2026. First off, 2026 is pretty crowded. Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Three and Ice Age 6 are both set to release on December 18, 2026 — exactly the same day as Avengers: Doomsday. Shrek 5 will also release on December 23, and Jumanji 4 is set to release on December 11.

Second, the MCU’s Multiverse Saga hasn’t been as consistent as the Infinity Saga. The Multiverse Saga has presented a larger output than the Infinity Saga, but it has also included several of the MCU’s lowest-grossing and worst-received installments, such as The Marvels, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and Captain America: Brave New World. Thunderbolts*‘ lukewarm box office performance is also a negative sign of the franchise’s wider perception, considering the New Avengers’ introduction movie was significantly better received by audiences and critics than previous Phase 4 and 5 movie and TV тιтles.

Gone with the Wind‘s inflation-adjusted$4.5 billionbox office record proves that inflation, industry evolution, and compeтιтion all play crucial roles in shaping box office records.

Likewise, the Multiverse Saga’s overarching story hasn’t been as clear as the Infinity Saga’s. Whereas each Phase of the Infinity Saga built toward a climactic Avengers crossover event (followed by a solo epilogue in Phases 2 and 3), the Multiverse Saga’s Phases 4 and 5 lacked clear divisions. Phase 6’s Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars are the Multiverse Saga’s only Avengers movies, and no character has completed a duology or a trilogy within the saga. The absence of central characters and team-up films leaves Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars‘ direction uncertain.

Could Avengers: Secret Wars Be Even Bigger?

Avengers: Secret Wars Has Everything To Beat Endgame, But There’s A Problem

Custom image of Thor and Ian McKellen's Magneto — Custom Image By Milica Djordjevic

Avengers: Secret Wars has gathered everything a Marvel movie needs to break every possible record and leave Avengers: Endgame in the dust. Avengers: Doomsday elevates Avengers: Endgame‘s crossover formula with the addition of the X-Men, the Fantastic Four, the New Avengers, and presumably several surprising cameos, and Avengers: Secret Wars could take it all to the next level. Legendary Marvel stars such as Tobey Maguire, Hugh Jackman, Ryan Reynolds, and Wesley Snipes will probably appear alongside the Avengers, wrapping up almost thirty years’ worth of Marvel movie history. On top of that, Avengers: Endgame‘s Russo Bros. and Robert Downey Jr. are also returning.

On the other hand, the Multiverse Saga’s numerous flaws and setbacks have made it less likely for any of its projects to match the heights of Avengers: Infinity War or Avengers: Endgame. The once-reachable $1 billion milestone now feels more elusive, as audiences increasingly wait for streaming releases unless a film truly grabs their attention. While Avengers: Secret Wars may surpᴀss Spider-Man: No Way Home and approach Avengers: Endgame‘s numbers, the current movie landscape makes it unlikely that either Avengers: Doomsday or Avengers: Secret Wars will hit the $3.3 billion they need to fully overtake Avengers: Endgame‘s record.