After the last film underperformed at the box office, Paramount and Skydance’s Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning is projecting a franchise high for its box office debut. The film is a sequel to 2023’s ᴅᴇᴀᴅ Reckoning, and is being marketed as the franchise’s final film, however, neither Tom Cruise nor director Christopher McQuarrie have given a definitive answer as to whether it will be the franchise’s ending. Following the events of the previous film, Final Reckoning aims to conclude Ethan Hunt’s (Tom Cruise) mission against the rogue AI called The Enтιтy.

With just over a month remaining until its release, the first Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning box office projections have arrived. As reported by ᴅᴇᴀᴅline, Quorom has the upcoming sequel bringing in at least $100 million in its Memorial Day release weekend, as is its compeтιтion, the live-action Lilo & Sтιтch remake. This would put it as the highest-grossing opening in the franchise thus far, surpᴀssing Mission: Impossible — Fallout‘s $61 million opening. The opening projection for Final Reckoning alone should nearly compensate for last year’s Memorial Day weekend draw of $132.2 million.

What This Means For Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

This Projection Points The Film Being More Commercially Successful Than The Last

The last movie in the Mission: Impossible franchise, ᴅᴇᴀᴅ Reckoning, made $571 million at the global box office with a reported production budget of around $300 million, leading some to consider that the installment was a box office underperformer. There are several factors to include, like Barbie and Oppenheimer making high numbers during the same period and franchise fatigue, as ᴅᴇᴀᴅ Reckoning was the seventh entry of Mission: Impossible.

While Final Reckoning isn’t facing a pair of films expected to be such heavy hitters that they have a nickname for their simultaneous release, like Barbenheimer, the sequel is facing compeтιтion during its release. The most potent compeтιтor could arguably be the live-action remake of Lilo & Sтιтch, a long-awaited live-action version for Disney fans, which is also expected to open to high numbers. Other compeтιтors include Karate Kid: Legends, Thunderbolts*, and Final Destination: Bloodlines, which are all part of well-known franchises, so the verdict will be left in the hands of star power and each franchise’s respective fanbase resilience.

Our Take On Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning’s Projections

It Being Considered An Underperformer Isn’t Likely

I don’t see Final Reckoning being considered a box office underperformer like ᴅᴇᴀᴅ Reckoning​​​​​​. It being marketed as the franchise’s finale, even while not confirmed to be such, could be a big draw for fans of the Mission: Impossible franchise, along with the star power of Cruise. Aside from Lilo & Sтιтch and Thunderbolts*, it could beat out its compeтιтion, given the franchise’s history of commercial and critical success. All of that being said, Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning should at least break even, despite its gargantuan budget of $400 million​​​​​​.

Source: ᴅᴇᴀᴅline