Although Wicked led this year’s nominations at the Academy Awards, the musical was defeated in all major categories — but this makes it considerably easier to predict how Wicked 2 will fare at next year’s ceremony. Interestingly, Wicked achieved a huge feat by becoming one of the most nominated films at the 97th Academy Awards. This included 10 nominations across a number of categories, including: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Score, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Visual Effects, Best Film Editing, and Best Sound Editing, as well as Best Costume Design and Best Production Design.

That being said, Wicked was not one of the major winners at the 2025 Oscars. In fact, Wicked only swept two of its nominated categories — with Anora emerging as the clear victor at the 97th ceremony. Jon M. Chu’s musical triumphed in the Best Costume and Production Design nominations, which is reasonable given that Wicked was the clear standout in both leagues. However, the losses of Ariana Grande and Cynthia Eviro in the prominent categories were met with significant disappointment among some audiences, which means Wicked: For Good has a major challenge ahead at the 98th Academy Awards next year.

Why Wicked Didn’t Win Any Of The Biggest Awards At The Oscars 2025

Wicked Had A Major Uphill Battle And Significant Compeтιтion

From the outset, Wicked was not well poised for success at the Oscars 2025. In relation to Best Picture, it was unlikely that Wicked would win against the likes of Anora or Conclave. The musical became something of a phenomenon during its release, and it was filmed on an incredibly large scale in comparison to its compeтιтors. This mostly made it a non-starter in the leading category, as there’s a tendency for the ceremony to neglect major blockbusters in favor of independent work. Not to mention, only 10 musicals have previously won at the Oscars.

In terms of Best Actress and Supporting Actress, the compeтιтion was simply too strong this year for Grande or Eviro to emerge as victors. Although Grande’s loss was challenging to reconcile with, the performance by Zoe Saldaña was one that was extremely unlikely to beat, even in the face of the widespread controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez. In addition to this, Eviro’s defeat was anticipated to some degree. Anora‘s Mikey Madison and The Substance‘s Demi Moore were heavily favored to win in the main category, which only became even more pronounced following Anora‘s complete victory across the board.

Which Nominations Wicked 2 Is Likely To Get: Our Early Predictions

It Is Likely Wicked 2 Will Repeat In Many Below-The-Line Categories

Considering the nature of Wicked: For Good, it seems more than reasonable to ᴀssume that it will be likely to repeat nominations in several of the minor categories. Wicked has given us a rather good picture of what to expect from the final chapter, which means nominations for Best Visual Effects, Costume, and Production Design are very likely. Moreover, considering the upcoming movie’s scope and major narrative expansion, these elements strongly suggest a potential nomination for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. However, a number of categories will depend upon the compeтιтion during the 98th ceremony — such as the Best Editing category.

There’s good reason to ᴀssume that Wicked: For Good is likely to receive nominations for Best Sound, and potentially Best Score. Given the film’s expansion of the stage production, we can expect a proportion of songs in Wicked 2 to be brand new, which should make them strong contenders for a nomination for Best Original Song. Despite this, the most challenging aspect of Wicked 2 is repeating its three biggest nominations for Best Picture in 2026 and performances. In the Academy’s history, only 12 sequels have been nominated for Best Picture, and repeat nominations for best performance are equally uncommon.

However, these will more than likely hinge on how the compeтιтion plays out, as well as the overall quality of Wicked: For Good. It is difficult to call at this stage, but part one has definitely given us some of the much bigger, and more defining moments, of the musical — such as “Defying Gravity.” Ultimately, this means it could be incredibly difficult for Part Two to replicate and repeat the success of last year’s Wicked.

Which Categories Wicked: For Good Has A Strong Chance Of Winning At The Oscars 2026

Wicked Will Face Another Uphill Battle At The Oscars In 2026

Fundamentally, it is most plausible for the sequel to duplicate its win in the Best Costume and Best Production Design categories. However, Wicked Part Two still has an incredibly difficult task securing this victory due to its immense anticipation — which means Wicked: For Good will face even greater scrutiny its second time round. This could negatively impact its chances at the Oscars 2026. The chances of its success in other categories will increase with less compeтιтion, which is particularly the case for Best Original Song and Best Makeup and Hairstyling.

However, there are already a great number of films that will pose a significant threat to Wicked: For Good. For instance, Avatar: Fire & Ash, as well as Frankenstein and Bugonia are just a few of the features that are going to be incredibly strong in the Academy’s technical categories, so it is logical to surmise that Wicked‘s wins in these technical categories are not guaranteed. Only a truly spectacular effort from Wicked: For Good will allow it to triumph over such strong contenders and break through in these major categories.