Hasbro’s Star Wars action figures are “challenged” and “dragged down,” but what’s actually gone wrong for the Black Series and Vintage Collection – and can the problems be fixed? Hasbro’s end-of-year reports revealed 2024 was a tough year; sales declined by 12%, while revenue dropped by 17% for the full year. A lot of this was due to the sale of eOne, but Hasbro also singled out Star Wars in the last two earnings calls.

The facts were laid out with unusual bluntness in Hasbro’s Q3 2024 earnings call:

“Toy revenue softness was due in part to our decision to sell less closeout volume in favor of higher profitability, as well as incremental softness in action figures, particularly Star Wars. We view action figures as a long-term bet for the Company and a place Hasbro has special strength from preschoolers to kids to adult fans. So we are bullish about this segment’s eventual return to growth.”

Star Wars got another meaning in Hasbro’s Q4 2024 earnings call, where sales were described as “challenging” and “dragged down.” What’s going on?

Star Wars Merchandise Has Been Struggling For Years

Back in the 1970s, George Lucas smartly negotiated a contract where he benefited from Star Wars merchandise – and it became the secret to his success. It all began with Kenner, and nowadays that legacy continues with Hasbro (literally; the Vintage Collection figures are literally designed as an appeal to nostalgia, packaged like Kenner products and scaled appropriately). But the problems with Star Wars began in 2018, when Toys R Us went bankrupt. Hasbro relied heavily on Toys R Us for sales, and was forced to reconfigure supply chains.

Licensed toy sales are dependent on blockbuster success, and Star Wars hasn’t released a single movie since 2019. Worse still, the cost of living crisis in 2023 led to a decline in the entire market, and sales in 2024 were flat. Industry experts hoped that a stabilizing economy, more major box office releases, and an anticipated string of streaming successes would help sales recover. But it didn’t quite pan out for Star Wars.

Lucasfilm Bet The House On The Acolyte

2024 was not a good year for Star Wars – certainly not as far as streaming was concerned. Lucasfilm placed a heavy bet on Leslye Headland’s The Acolyte, positioned to launch a whole new era in Star Wars. The studio’s hopes are evident when you look at the staggering number of tie-ins, ranging from comics to variant covers, from action figures to novels. Unfortunately, The Acolyte proved deeply controversial, and viewing figures were disappointing.

“The Acolyte was really the first one that I think you would say is legitimately poor performance comparative to the other Star Wars shows,” Jimmy Doyle – Director and Film & TV analyst at Luminate – told ScreenRant. “Now that said, this is still one of the biggest shows on Disney+ this year,” he continued. “It’s just lower than where that level has been set for the Star Wars тιтles.” The Acolyte was canceled by Disney; the experiment had failed to pay off.

This was likely a major factor in Hasbro’s 2024 problems when it came to Star Wars. The Acolyte Black Series and Vintage Collection action figures were stunning, beautifully designed, but they were unlikely to sell well given the show’s low viewership and controversial reception. Star Wars: Skeleton Crew was quite niche, failing to break the streaming top 10 charts, and I can’t see those action figures selling as well as they deserve.

Star Wars Is Going Through A Slow Period

The Acolyte‘s controversies seemed to signal something of a “ᴅᴇᴀᴅ period” for Star Wars, and it was shocking to see how engagement with the franchise declined on social media. We felt the impact here, but it was Star Wars News Net‘s ᴀssessment that really struck me; they summed up 2024 as a “challenging year… with Star Wars interest at an all-time low since the Disney acquisition.” Anecdotally, I do think Skeleton Crew changed the mood, introducing a much-needed sH๏τ of positivity, but it really only drew in the hardcore fandom.

Lucasfilm clearly believe this year’s Andor season 2 will be a hit; demand is high enough that the show trended during Super Bowl even though the studio didn’t release a trailer there. The question, though, is whether Andor will appeal to the same portions of the fanbase – thus driving action figure sales. Hasbro seem optimistic, recently announcing a range of Andor-related action figures.

But here’s the catch; after Andor, with the possible exception of some sort of as-yet-unannounced animated show, we’re expecting precious little new Star Wars until 2026’s The Mandalorian and Grogu movie. Until then, I expect Hasbro to double down on best-sellers – think more Din Djarin, more Darth Vader – with some more niche collectibles to keep the collectors online. I’m afraid I don’t anticipate Star Wars toy sales increasing mᴀssively, at least until Christmas, when I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of Mandalorian and Grogu merch.

The Mandalorian and Grogu Needs To Be A Success

To be fair, I don’t think Hasbro is surprised by this. Look again at that Q3 statement: “We view action figures as a long-term bet for the Company and a place Hasbro has special strength from preschoolers to kids to adult fans. So we are bullish about this segment’s eventual return to growth.” In other words, Hasbro know this year will be a slow one for Star Wars, and all hopes rest on The Mandalorian and Grogu.

An awful lot of pressure rests on that one movie. It will mark Star Wars‘ return to the big screen at last, and it features characters who have been a hit on streaming, and who already have a significant cultural impact. Luminate’s Jimmy Doyle described the appeal of Jon Favreau’s film perfectly:

“You never got a subscription to Disney+. Do you wanna finally see baby Yoda in a movie theater, in a thing? You bought all the merchandise even though you’ve never watched the show. Come see this movie.”

This does feel like a make-or-break moment for Star Wars. Lucasfilm – and the merchandising companies the studio works with – need The Mandalorian and Grogu to be a hit. Nobody would ever bet against Jon Favreau, but that’s a lot of pressure.