While Roofman is a lot of fun and will likely benefit from good word of mouth (it currently has an 83% Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes), it’s not expected to blow up the box office. In fact, projections have it falling far behind Tron: Ares for the opening weekend gross.

Roofman‘s potential problems at the box office may be partly because of the compeтιтion, but it may also be because the film is coming out too early. Roofman has a charming tone and a bittersweet plot that fits in neatly alongside the holiday season. However, that tone doesn’t quite fit in as well alongside typical October fare.

Thanksgiving and Christmas play roles in the plot, whereas Halloween is briefly touched upon. Roofman almost feels like a perfectly good subversive holiday story. Releasing it in October just feels weird, especially because it’s going against movies like Tron: Ares that seem better suited for the season.

However, that strategy feels more prescient when one takes into account the streaming release. Paramount typically puts new films onto Paramount+ 45 days after they debut in theaters. It’s a common theatrical window given the current market. This means that Roofman will likely be available on the streamer on November 24, i.e. the week of Thanksgiving.

By releasing in October, Roofman can garner good word of mouth to become a smash when it hits streaming. It’s a similar trajectory that has paid off for other movies this year like Caught Stealing, which failed to earn its budget at the box office but has been blowing up on VOD. It may also pay dividends in award season.

Roofman’s Streaming Window Might Keep Channing Tatum In The Oscar Race

Award season is already upon us, with plenty of prestige films of the year competing for attention. The Oscars aren’t for several more months, but narratives are already building up around upcoming releases like Hamnet and films from earlier this year like Sinners. However, a secret weapon in award season has proven to be streaming.

In an industry where pressure is on Academy voters to have actually seen all the movies in contention, having a streaming release amid the holiday season makes it much easier for movies to reach prospective voters and wider audiences alike. This can help keep a movie in the award conversation even if it didn’t register a big box office return.

Especially for a low-key dramedy like Roofman that relies more on charm than explosions, a streaming release during the holiday season might be worth pushing the movie into theaters prematurely. It also means the movie will be easy to rewatch for voters who are debating their short-list picks for nominations.

In a crowded field, this could help keep Channing Tatum in the mix for Best Actor. Currently considered a dark horse contender for a nomination (not because of anything wrong with his performance but due to the strength of his compeтιтion), Tatum’s odds improve if Roofman finds a bigger audience once it hits the home market.

This is a trend that other studios also seem to be taking, with One Battle After Another‘s strategic release date undercutting any other festival narratives while ensuring that it comes out on streaming right in the middle of the holidays. Other expected award contenders like The Smashing Machine and After the Hunt have done the same thing.

It’s a clever approach that ensures movies still get theatrical releases but then uses the streaming window to strong effect during award season. Especially if audiences connect with the film once it gets to Paramount+, award voters might keep Tatum’s Roofman performance front and center in their minds while putting together selections for the award consideration.