Tron: Ares is poised to smash a record for the franchise during its opening weekend. The upcoming Tron: Ares is the third installment in the long-running science fiction franchise, which began with the original 1982 cult hit and also includes its 2010 sequel Tron: Legacy.

Per Variety, early projections for the impending opening weekend of Tron: Ares show it debuting with a 3-day haul between $45 and $50 million at the domestic box office. This will be more than enough for it to take No. 1 over the weekend, during which it is competing with fellow new release Roofman, a smaller-scale drama starring Channing Tatum.

International projections are similar, showing a range of $40 to $45 million that places Ares‘ global debut somewhere between $85 and $95 million. If Tron: Ares hits its expected range, it will earn the highest-grossing domestic debut for the franchise, slipping past the $44 million 3-day opening of Tron: Legacy and rocketing far above the original Tron‘s $4.7 million.

However, those numbers look significantly different when adjusted for inflation. While the original movie’s adjusted $15.6 million debut is still far below these projections for the new installment, the Tron: Ares release looks less compeтιтive when compared to the adjusted $65 million debut haul of Legacy.

This is not necessarily unexpected. So far, the Tron movies have consistently been cult hits with solid, but not particularly spectacular performances at the box office. It stood to reason that Ares would perform in a similar way.

However, one issue that is posed by the fact that it is underperforming compared to Legacy is that the new installment comes with a large budget. Tron: Ares‘ price tag is reportedly $180 million, which is a touch above Legacy‘s reported $170 million budget (though that comes out to a whopping $251.3 million when adjusted for inflation).

While Ares ultimately comes in below Legacy‘s adjusted price tag, both movies are still a significant increase from the reported $17 million budget of the original Tron ($56.5 million adjusted). Additionally, because theatrical releases often need to earn back two and a half times their budgets, Ares‘ estimated break-even point could be as high as $450 million.

If Ares hits the upper end of its projected debut range and follows the same overall trajectory as Legacy, it could eventually hit a gross of $455 million by the end of its run, which would place it in roughly the same echelon of the previous movies in terms of return on investment.

However, it remains to be seen if it is able to do that. Tron: Ares reviews have earned the new installment a middling Rotten Tomatoes score of 53%. While a 51% score did not necessarily hurt Legacy back in 2010, the upcoming movie will have to rely on word of mouth that it is not yet guaranteed to have.

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