There’s no way to categorize James Cameron’s Avatar franchise as anything but a gigantic success as Avatar: Fire and Ash approaches. The first film is the highest-grossing movie of all time, and the sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, delivered a mᴀssively impressive $2.2 billion haul.

To say that expectations are high for Avatar: Fire and Ash would be an understatement. Disney and 20th Century’s marketing teams have outdone themselves to hype up the third installment of what Cameron envisions as a five-movie saga. With each trailer, the epic scope of the Na’vi war on Pandora becomes greater.

When the movie arrives in theaters on December 19, it will be a huge test for the acclaimed sci-fi franchise with $5.2 billion in box office receipts. It actually has its work cut out for it to prove whether this series was a two-hit wonder or if audiences are invested enough to support an evolving franchise.

Avatar: Fire & Ash Is A Very Different Release For The Franchise

On the surface, Fire and Ash seems a lot like the previous two Avatar movies. Cameron is still directing, the principal cast is the same, it’s set on Pandora and explores the relationships between the Na’vi and humans, and it features some of the best visual effects you’ll ever see. That simplified view overlooks the audience’s relationship with the prior entries.

The original 2009 movie was a big technological marvel that became a global sensation thanks, in part, to its use of 3D, creating a demand to see it on the big screen. It also helped that this was a completely new, original sci-fi blockbuster coming at a time when Hollywood’s IP craze was taking off.

Most can still remember what it was like to watch Avatar in theaters for the first time. And while the calls for the sequel weren’t as constant as they are for new entries from Marvel, DC, Star Wars, etc., the way the movie connected with audiences around the world was not up for debate.

When it finally came time to return to Pandora 13 years later, it was no surprise that audiences turned out in droves once again. There was a long gap between the first and second films that naturally built up anticipation. A new Avatar movie was an event in and of itself because it had been so long since the last one happened.

It also helped that The Way of Water was able to boast similarly impressive technological breakthroughs. Cameron’s advancements made the visuals special and put other recent blockbusters to shame. Viewers had to go see the movie on the big screen to see how the filmmaker pushed CGI to new heights. The deeper story he delivered was the icing on the cake.

The genuine excitement for the first film and the arrival of the sequel can even be quantified with 2022’s re-release of Avatar. The first wide re-release of the movie around the world since its debut did big numbers at the box office once again. It made $10 million in its opening weekend domestically and finished with $24M domestically and $76 million worldwide.

That not only represents the strong demand audiences had to revisit the original film, but also the interest in the sequel. It was clear that audiences were very ready to go back to Pandora and see the next chapter in Cameron’s story.

This is where Fire and Ash becomes a different story. Whereas the franchise was dormant for over a decade before The Way of Water‘s release, three years will have pᴀssed from then when the threequel debuts. There’s been less time for audiences to naturally yearn for another movie, with the franchise’s output now aligning with Hollywood’s usual approach.

In a way, that could make the movie feel less special, like it’s not as big of an event. Audiences could feel more inclined to wait for streaming or just not have the same level of interest in another movie already. Alternatively, an argument could be made that the shortened release gap and the chance that this is the last Avatar movie will drive even more interest.

Time isn’t the only factor that’s different for Fire and Ash. It’s worth noting that the movie was filmed back-to-back with The Way of Water and utilized much of the same technology. The additional three years could help Cameron innovate the CGI a bit more, but the leap from the first and second installments will not be replicated.

Fire and Ash‘s CGI will mostly look like the last film. That’s not a bad thing considering the grand achievement in CGI that the second Avatar represents. But, without a big breakthrough of its own, the lack of a technological improvement would remove a key element behind these films becoming so successful.

Avatar: Fire & Ash Will Show How Much Demand There Is For This Franchise

This leaves me with the question of whether audiences really want more Avatar movies. Can Fire and Ash still be the cinematic event of the year? Is it possible for it to even come close to the first two movies at the box office and eclipse $2 billion? Or, is the franchise in a worse spot than it seems?

The latter thought popped into my head after this past weekend when Disney and 20th Century did a re-release of The Way of Water. It was marketed heavily and included new looks at Fire and Ash to further incentivize audiences to see it. The results took me by surprise.

The Way of Water‘s re-release made $3.2 million in its opening weekend domestically, finishing in seventh place on the weekend. It’s only made $9.9 million worldwide as of this writing. That’s a sharp decline compared to the original film’s 2022 re-release.

Both of them were done with the same intent: promote the next installment, give audiences another chance to see the movie on the big screen, and rake in a few more bucks at the box office. Yet, the interest was substantially lower for The Way of Water.

So why is this? Is it because the sequel came out only three years ago, so audiences aren’t that far removed from when they saw it on the big screen last? Is there generally less nostalgia/love for the sequel? If either of those is the answer, the franchise’s long-term health can still be quite good.

However, there’s also the possibility that the smaller interest in The Way of Water‘s re-release reflects audiences’ urge to go back to Pandora already. There clearly weren’t nearly as many people who felt like they had to go see the last movie in theaters again to catch a glimpse at Fire and Ash and get a theatrical showing of the sequel in before December.

If that is the case, then Avatar will be in some trouble. These movies cost a fortune (The Way of Water had a budget of $460 million, reportedly), and they need high interest levels from everyone to become hits. If some of the people who went to see the previous two entries now aren’t as eager for a third, that could be disastrous.

This could damage the franchise’s chance of continuing its $2B+ performance trend. A decline from Avatar to The Way of Water was always expected, but another sizable drop between the latter and Fire and Ash would raise more questions about the franchise’s viability long-term.

Perhaps that is why even Cameron has recently started to highlight how Avatar 4 and 5 are not sure things. He recognizes that Fire and Ash must turn a major profit for the two additional sequels to finish production. The only way to do that is if audiences prove once again that Avatar is a franchise they not only like, but one that they love and want more of.

Whatever the outcome is, Avatar‘s future will be determined with Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s release. It’ll either be another mega hit that shows the studio just how much audiences desire more trips to Pandora, or it will underperform and end Cameron’s five-film arc two entries short.