Dwayne Johnson is about to enter a new phase of his career with The Smashing Machine, where he portrays UFC’s Mark Kerr, based on the 2002 documentary of the same name. The film has gotten strong reviews from the festival circuit, but the Rock is expected to be outshined by an even bigger star at the box office: Taylor Swift.

Taylor Swift is about to dominate the box office once again, proving how powerful her Swiftie fan base truly can be. Less than two weeks ago, the global icon announced The Official Release Party Of a Showgirl, an 89-minute “event” that is not a traditional film, but is expected to leave a huge mark at the box office.

The project is essentially a filmed, large-scale version of one of the singer’s “secret sessions” events where she invites fans to listen to her new album, The Life of a Showgirl, which also drops on October 3. The announcement was also coupled with news that there would be a new Taylor Swift radio station on Sirius XM (Channel 13, of course) that would play her entire catalog 24/7 for a whole month.

While it will only be in theaters for one weekend, it’s expected to easily top the box office. Initial projections were between $35 million and $50 million, though a recent piece from Variety is revising them down slightly, between $35 million and $40 million. The announcement caused Swifties to purchase a whopping $15 million worth of tickets in the first day alone, causing AMC servers to crash.

Swifties Get Ready To Invade The Box Office With New Taylor Swift Film

This won’t be the first time Swift moves from the music realm to the movie theater. She released Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour in October 2023, though an exclusive distribution agreement with AMC Theatres and Cinemark, after her negotiations with movie studios fell through. The decision proved to be a wise one, opening with a whopping $93.2 million.

The concert film’s performance was ultimately rather top-loaded, ending its theatrical run after 13 weeks with $180.7 million domestically and $261.6 million worldwide, becoming the highest-grossing concert film of all time. The Official Release Party of a Showgirl is not a concert film, which may be a reason why it’s not tracking as big as The Eras Tour film.

The “film” will pair nicely with the October 3 release of The Life of a Showgirl — Swift’s 12th which will end a TV soundtrack trend – including the premiere of the music video for her single “The Fate Of Ophelia” plus behind-the-scenes footage of that shoot and Swift’s own reflections on these new songs.

Given the one-weekend window fans will be able to watch this film in, a box office debut of $49 million isn’t too much of a stretch.

The Smashing Machine Will Fail To Deliver A Box Office Knockout

A24’s The Smashing Machine will most likely earn Johnson his first Oscar nomination, but it’s not tracking too well at the box office. Analysts are projecting a debut between $8 million and $15 million this weekend. Even if Taylor Swift’s film comes in at the low end of its projections, The Smashing Machine has no chance of surpᴀssing it.

While the reviews remain strong with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s possible there could be a late resurgence, particularly given how big The Rock’s fan base is (392 million followers on Instagram alone). Still, we’re predicting it will come in third place this weekend with $13.4 million, just behind last week’s box office champ, One Battle After Another.

One Battle After Another Will Hold Well But Drop To Second Place

Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection

Director Paul Thomas Anderson’s critically-acclaimed One Battle After Another debuted atop the box office with $22.4 million last weekend, marking the filmmaker’s highest debut in his career. However, with a budget estimated between $130 million and $140 million, the light debut would typically be considered troubling.

However, ᴅᴇᴀᴅline mentioned in their report that “exuberant positivity” swirling around the film, and the fact that Warner Bros. plans on keeping it in theaters possibly through awards season, could give it a sH๏τ at breaking even. Forecasters are predicting a drop of 50% or more, but we have it in second place with $14.8 million for its second frame.

The Return of Avatar: The Way of Water

Director James Cameron’s 2022 blockbuster sequel will return to theaters this weekend, which will have a preview of the highly-anticipated third film Avatar: Fire & Ash along with it. The re-release will give fans one last chance to enjoy the sequel in theaters while also getting a glimpse at the next installment of this franchsise set in the world of Pandora.

Sam Worthington returns as Jake Sully alongside Zoe Saldana’s Neytiri in this blockbuster that pulled in $684 million domestic and $2.32 billion worldwide. The re-release surely won’t come close to the $134.1 million debut of the sequel back in December 2022. However, it will give die-hard Avatar fans a chance to see it again on the big screen.

Of course, it won’t provide any serious compeтιтion to Taylor Swift, One Battle After Another or The Smashing Machine, but it should squeeze out $3.2 million this weekend.