This year’s summer movie season has come and gone, coming in far below most analysts’ expectations. Some were convinced this summer alone would bring the industry out of its COVID lockdown-induced funk. Instead, the industry sunk to a new low, posting the worst grosses since 1981, when adjusted for inflation. However, a disappointing summer could lead to a promising fall.

To look ahead at the final three months of 2025, ScreenRant sat down with Cinelytic Group CEO Tobias Queisser, who broke down his company’s projections for Q4. Among its many services to help studios and filmmakers ᴀssess the viability of films, the company offers an AI-driven model that weighs 19 different factors to predict a project’s financial performance, even unmade ones.

This tool, which Queisser describes as the “heart of Cinelytic,” also allows the company to forecast the overall box office with remarkable accuracy. The company’s projections for total grosses from the first quarter of 2025 were 98% accurate, with the second quarter was projected at a 97% accuracy rate.

Even more impressive? The full 2025 forecast was released in November 2024, before the theatrical year started.

The Cinelytic Group is projecting a 3% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. While that’s definitely going in the right direction, it won’t push the overall domestic box office to pre-pandemic heights. It may be quite some time before the domestic box office returns to normal, if it ever does.

Driving that growth, according to their model, are four of 2025’s biggest тιтles – arranged here from largest to smallest.

Avatar: Fire & Ash Will Reign Supreme In December

Perhaps not the most surprising revelation, given that the first two films were both box office juggernauts, but no forecast would be accurate without it. Avatar debuted in December 2009 with a solid opening of $77 million, but broke box office records with its longevity, finishing its run with a then-record $749.7 million domestic and $2.743 billion worldwide.

The 2022 sequel Avatar: The Way of Water slid slightly compared to its predecessor, but proved beyond doubt that Avatar’s success was not a fluke. It took in $684 million domestic and $2.32 billion worldwide, setting the stage for three more films to follow – starting with Avatar: Fire and Ash (December 19), which Cinelytic expects to drop a bit more.

“I think we’re a little bit below the second one,” Queisser said, “though still very strong.” The forecast expects Avatar 3 to top out at $605 million domestic, still good enough for the top-earning release of the year. The current leader, A Minecraft Movie, stands at just under $424 million.

He did admit that perhaps the third Avatar film has suffered from some “franchise fatigue,” though he still thought it would pull off “a very good performance at the box office.” The sequel already has some substantial buzz after the recent release of the Avatar: Fire & Ash trailer, and the upcoming re-release of Way of Water will only build anticipation.

Zootopia 2 Will Strike Box Office Gold Over Thanksgiving Weekend

There have been 57 movies to cross the coveted $1 billion worldwide threshold at the box office, but the original Zootopia is one of the few not based on any previous intellectual property or former film franchise. The Walt Disney Animation film grossed a strong $341.2 million domestically and $684.2 million overseas in 2016, for a worldwide total of $1.025 billion.

Zootopia 2 (November 26), which has graduated from a modest spring release to a splashy Thanksgiving release slot and brings back Nick (Jason Bateman) and Judy (Ginnifer Goodwin), will surpᴀss the original domestically, according to Cinelytic’s forecasting models.

“We see it to be $440 million… I think it will perform well, at least that’s what the system says,” Queisser added.

He noted that Avatar: Fire and Ash earning north of $600 million and Zootopia 2 crossing $400 million domestically “is very strong” for the current “environment” at the box office – especially since Disney’s animated sequel won’t be the only November release to cross that $400 million benchmark.

Wicked: For Good Will Repeat The First Movie’s November Success

After languishing in development for decades, Wicked finally arrived on the big screen last November, and fans showed up in droves. The musical adaptation and Wizard of Oz prequel took in $473.2 million, the third-highest gross of 2024. It wasn’t quite as strong overseas, however, adding $283.1 million for a worldwide tally of $756.4 million.

Director Jon M. Chu’s musical adapted just the first of the Stephen Schwartz and Winnie Holtzman Broadway musical’s two acts, with the highly anticipated Wicked: For Good (November 21) covering the latter half. While Cinelytic predicts it will hit $400 million domestic (more precisely, $402 million), Queisser notes it won’t earn enough from the foreign market to surpᴀss $1 billion worldwide.

“We have a bit below a billion overall. The problem is the international market, to be honest. I think it will do better than last year. We think it will be north of $300 [million internationally],” Queisser said.

Tron: Ares Will Hit (Eerily Familiar) Paydirt In October

The last big box office driver for Q4 this year is Disney’s Tron: Ares, the long-awaited follow-up to 2010’s Tron: Legacy. That film opened just north of $44 million at the domestic box office, en route to $172 million domestic and $400 million worldwide. The sequel is tracking for a nearly identical domestic debut.

It seems the film starring Jared Leto will largely fall in line with its predecessor, though with a slight domestic dip, according to Cinelytic.

“Tron we have at $130 [million domestic], so pretty much in line with that, I would say,” Queisser revealed.

Notably, though, Tron: Ares is projected to be far less successful for its studio than the three blockbusters ahead of it. Along with box office, Cinelytic’s model projects total revenue, including earnings from VOD and home video sales. These forecasts indicate a 16.4% return on investment for the new Tron, compared to Wicked: For Good‘s 391.9%; Zootopia 2‘s 523.8%; and Avatar: Fire & Ash‘s 483.5%.

What Could Save The Domestic Box Office? Originality & Family Films

When asked about broader takeaways, Queisser explained that Cinelytic’s metrics are revealing that audiences crave more originality, and the successes of A Minecraft Movie and Lilo and Sтιтch (the latter being the only American film to cross $1 billion this year so far) confirm that more family films need to be made.

“Audiences like original content. Minecraft is a computer game, right? And I think Warner Bros. did a great job in activating and making the film, making a good film that caters to that fan audience. They identified with that film and wanted to see it and saw in it this extension of the game.”

Films like A Minecraft Movie and Lilo and Sтιтch both worked because they are “fun to watch in a community.“ He added that the Minecraft video game has over 100 million players, and that Warner Bros. “made a film that spoke to that audience.“

Queisser also believes the entire industry is “in the middle of a transition phase,” citing the potential merger of Paramount and Warner Bros., which is fostering uncertainty in the industry. It could be “another two or three years” before the box office establishes “a new baseline that hopefully works for everyone.“

How Could Cinelytic Help Hollywood Evolve?

Given their industry-leading rate of accuracy, Queisser believes that Cinelytic has a lot to offer movie studios and other film productions in various stages of development.

“Cinelytic lets you understand the market potential and the best path to markets, and the key levers that you can still change early on, like years before release, so you can really think about the business case a lot,” Queisser said.

He added that they also have a tool called ScriptSense, which you can “drop books and scripts [into], and it gives you instant summaries and instant character descriptions.” It would allow a production company to handle more volume and “really narrow in [on] what they think works” in terms of potential IP.

Still, he wanted to clarify that his company has no intent to take over the creative process. Rather, their tools take out some of the uncertainty that often bogs down that process.

“We are very clear that we don’t touch creative. Creative takes the lead. But in order for creative vision to not only become a good film, but also… create a film that makes economic sense, you really have to think about the business case of film. And that’s where we help.”

“We’re here to help our clients navigate and be successful… We are all aligned to help them make the best decision, and especially increase productivity, look at more things faster and really help them understand the market better, and understand what’s out there in terms of story opportunities,” Queisser concluded.

Studios, production companies and filmmakers can visit Cinelytic.com to request a demo and see how their tools can help any given film project.