Any debate over whether Top Gun 3 would happen was put to rest in 2022 when Top Gun: Maverick became a global phenomenon. Tom Cruise’s long-awaited sequel lit up the box office to the tune of $1.4 billion worldwide, earned critical acclaim (a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score), and powered itself to six Oscar nominations, including Best Picture.

Paramount ᴀssured that it would only make another if Cruise was on board, and after taking some time to think things through, Top Gun 3‘s development began in earnest in early 2024. Christopher McQuarrie and Ehren Kruger have returned to write the screenplay, with Cruise set to play Maverick once more too.

A key part in the film’s development has been the attachment of Maverick‘s director, Joseph Kosinski. He’s teased the “ambitious” story for Top Gun 3, further signaling that he will likely return to direct it, even if he’s not officially attached to do so at the moment.

And while Paramount’s merger with Skydance brought reports that Top Gun 3 is a priority for the new-look studio, the film has quietly now become a lot more uncertain thanks to new movie announcements.

Top Gun 3 Is Still Years Away If Joseph Kosinski Is Directing It Now

It’s already been three years since Top Gun: Maverick came out, and the slower development on the sequel has been surprising after the recent box office success. The news that Skydance-Paramount was starting to prioritize the film seemed like a sign that the movie could pick up steam quickly.

That is impossible now as long as everyone wants Kosinski to come back as the director. It’s been announced by Universal Pictures that he’s directing a Miami Vice reboot movie with an August 6, 2027, release date. Casting is currently underway and filming is slated to begin in 2026 to hit this date.

Miami Vice will keep Kosinski busy for the next two years now. It will demand his full attention, as he works through the pre-production process now, films it next year, and spends the next year or so in post-production. Then, he’ll have to do press for it too, eating up more of his availability.

This means that there is no feasible way that Top Gun 3 comes out until 2028 (at the earliest) if the plan is for Kosinski to direct it. That date could even be pushing it. A 2029 release date for Top Gun 3 may be more realistic at this point, giving audiences a seven-year wait for Cruise’s threequel.

There’s even a chance that the gap could be extended further. In addition to Miami Vice, Kosinski is working on an unтιтled UFO movie for Apple Studios. If he were to make that movie directly after Miami Vice, it would only push back the timeliness of making Top Gun 3. There’s even a possible F1 sequel to complicate things further.

While Top Gun 3 would seem like the priority project on paper, Kosinski is lining up multiple other projects to do first. The more he does, the longer it will take the sequel to get off the ground and plant its own release date plans.

That all said, production schedules can shift on a whim in Hollywood. If the Top Gun 3 script gets finished and Cruise has an opening in his schedule to make the film a priority for him, Kosinski could move around his commitments to stay aboard what seems like a guaranteed juggernaut.

Top Gun 3 Should Wait Out Joseph Kosinski Rather Than Replace Him – But Can Tom Cruise Afford It?

Kosinski returning to direct Top Gun 3 is the ideal outcome without question. He proved to be a great fit for the action and story, helping modernize the franchise while retaining the core elements of Tony Scott’s original.

Paramount, Sydance, and Cruise should do everything they can to stay in business with Kosinski, even if that means waiting for Miami Vice to complete. The logistical reality of that decision, though, could prove to be too great for the franchise star.

Cruise is currently 63 years old, and while he’s still a certifiable action movie star, he could be nearing 70 by the time Kosinski’s schedule allows him to make Top Gun 3. The physical demands of the realistic flying sequences in these movies should not be ignored.

If Cruise wants to make Top Gun 3 before he gets too old, he may be left with no other choice than to find a new director to replace Kosinski. That could prove challenging considering how the A-list star has navigated his career throughout most of the 21st century.

Cruise loves to work with directors he’s familiar with at this stage. Just as he tapped Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick after they worked together on Oblivion, he could look to some previous collaborators to take on the sequel. Christopher McQuarrie would be a likely candidate to replace Kosinski, but names like Brad Bird, Doug Liman, or Edward Zwick could also join that potential conversation.

It’s ultimately a bit risky for Cruise to keep delaying Top Gun 3. He’s just walked away from Mission: Impossible, at least for now. One would think he’d view Top Gun as his new main franchise to build out.

Yet, there’s also the reality that what the actor needs most of all is for the next installment to be a smash hit. Cruise can’t afford for Top Gun 3 to disappoint audiences and leave money on the table at the box office. He and Paramount will be expecting a $1+ billion performer. Making a great movie is the best way to ensure that.

That may ultimately be what leads them to wait on Kosinski. It might go against Hollywood’s usual tendencies when it comes to the proximity of sequel releases, but, in this case, Top Gun 3 could be better off letting Kosinski’s schedule clear up rather than take the gamble of replacing him.