Ryan Gosling is well established in Hollywood, but Project Hail Mary is a pivotal release for him amid a new stage of his wildly successful career. After 2004’s romance classic The Notebook gave him a breakout role, he steered clear of leaning too much into his heartthrob status. It was instead his Oscar nomination two years later for the drama Half Nelson that changed things.

Working with Derek Cianfrance on Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond The Pines, and Only God Forgives were attempts for further awards or critical recognition. Nicolas Winding Refn’s Drive was too. He was great in Adam McKay’s The Big Short, but he didn’t earn a nomination again until Damien Chazelle’s La La Land in 2017.

He mixed in the occasional lighter, more commercially appealing film, like with 2011’s Crazy, Stupid, Love, or the now cult-hit The Nice Guys in 2016. But a shift came after his re-team with Chazelle, playing Neil Armstrong in 2018’s First Man, which didn’t get him Oscar recognition.

For all the years prior, he rarely seemed to choose movies based on their box office potential. In the decade after The Notebook, only two of Gosling’s movies exceeded $100 million at the box office. In the last decade? Six of his eight movies released wide in theaters hit that mark. There’s a big reason why.

Ryan Gosling Has Fully Embraced Being A Blockbuster Movie Star Recently

After spending much of his career steering clear of IP, franchises, and anything that could be considered non-prestigious, Gosling has gone the opposite way in recent years. He’s shifted from an actor using his star power to headline smaller, original films with awards potential to somebody who is bolstering the biggest movies around.

The new direction for his career is clear after Blade Runner 2049 and First Man didn’t live up to expectations financially, and both fell short of Oscar glory. He’s since done Netflix’s expensive action movie The Gray Man, the phenomenon that became Barbie, and an entertaining action reboot with The Fall Guy.

Next up, he’s got Project Hail Mary, which looks like it has potential to be one of 2026’s surprise hits. Then, Gosling goes to a galaxy far, far away for Star Wars: Starfighter. There’s still movement on an Ocean’s 11 prequel with him and Margot Robbie. And let’s not discount the chance of Barbie 2 happening either.

All these movies he’s done in the 2020s are nothing like what Gosling built his career on. That’s not a criticism, nor is it an inherently bad thing. But there’s no denying that something has changed. He has been seeking out films that are more spectacle-driven or could appeal to younger audiences and gain a following online.

The results have been mixed, though. The Gray Man became one of Netflix’s top 10 most-viewed movies ever, but the critical and audience response killed its franchise hopes. Barbie was a huge $1.4 billion box office hit and a major Oscar contender, with Gosling even earning a Best Supporting Actor nomination. The Fall Guy fell short of box office hopes despite rave reviews.

That’s what makes Project Hail Mary such an important release for the actor. He’s incredibly popular online, has endless charisma, and has fully embraced the oddities of blockbuster stardom – such as dressing as Beavis for The Fall Guy‘s premiere or delivering an Oscar highlight with his “I’m Just Ken” performance. But something is still missing.

Project Hail Mary Is Ryan Gosling’s Chance To Become A Box Office Star Without IP

Ryan Gosling needs a big hit at the box office to prove that audiences are actively seeking out movies for him, and not because of the IP he’s in. There was a belief that The Fall Guy would benefit from Gosling and Emily Blunt being fresh off the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, but that was proven false.

Project Hail Mary is an IP of sorts, as it’s based on the best-selling sci-fi novel of the same name by Andy Weir (the same mind behind The Martian). However, it’s not a pre-existing, major franchise that audiences have wide awareness of.

Barbie was the first live-action film of its nature, but everyone knows about Mattel’s iconic toy. The “original” movie used the IP familiarity to its advantage and became a sensation because of it. Gosling’s performance was a key part of the film working, and he was tied to several memes and online trends, but he’s not the reason people went to see Barbie.

The same will be true of Star Wars: Starfighter. There’s certainly excitement about Gosling joining such a big franchise, but audiences would be interested in this film even if there was someone else in the lead role. Starfighter won’t succeed or fail based on the actor’s draw with viewers.

That’s not the case for Project Hail Mary. This is a true star vehicle for Gosling. He is the selling point here for general audiences. The sci-fi imagery and Project Hail Mary‘s alien can help, but this film rests more on its lead’s shoulders, especially when it comes to its box office potential.

And that’s why this is a pivotal spot for the 44-year-old star. He’s had his fair share of hits. Yet there’s no proof that he’s a big enough star to attract audiences to anything he does. That said, is anyone at this point in Hollywood? The list of true A-list box office draws may be as small as Tom Cruise, Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, and Denzel Washington.

I’m fascinated to see how Project Hail Mary does next March as a result. The trailer is great, and it’s gotten positive buzz early on. That was also true for The Fall Guy, and it had an alarm-sounding $27 million opening weekend to kick off the summer season last year before finishing with an underwhelming $181 million worldwide total.

If Project Hail Mary crushes it next spring, then it could be the true launching pad for Ryan Gosling as a box office star. If it falters, some familiar conversations will come up once more.