Oscars 2026 Officially Has A Front-Runner For Best Picture

Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet has taken the top award at the Toronto International Film Festival, after premiering there earlier this week. Written by Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell, the film stars Paul Mescal, Jessie Buckley, Emily Watson, and David Wilmot, among others.

Hamnet follows a fictionalized version of William Shakespeare (Mescal) and his wife Agnes Shakespeare (Buckley), also known historically as Anne Hathaway, after the death of their young son Hamnet. It premiered to rave reviews, with Screen Rant rating the film 10/10.

Hamnet has since won the People’s Choice Award, often seen as an indicator of which films are in serious contention for the subsequent Academy Awards. This win marks Zhao’s second time receiving the award, having previously won for Nomadland in 2020. Notably, she would later win Best Picture and Best Director for that film at the 93rd Academy Awards.

The first runner-up for the People’s Choice Award was Frankenstein, directed by Guillermo del Toro. The second runner-up is Wake Up ᴅᴇᴀᴅ Man: A Knives Out Mystery, directed by Rian Johnson.

See the full list of People’s Choice Award honorees below:

People’s Choice Award presented by Rogers: Hamnet, dir. Chloé Zhao

First runner-up: Frankenstein, dir. Guillermo del Toro

Second runner-up: Wake Up ᴅᴇᴀᴅ Man: A Knives Out Mystery, dir. Rian Johnson

International People’s Choice Award presented by Rogers: No Other Choice, dir. Park Chan-wook

First runner-up: Sentimental Value, dir. Joachim Trier

Second runner-up: Homebound, dir. Neeraj Ghaywan

People’s Choice Documentary Award presented by Rogers: The Road Between Us: The Ultimate Rescue, dir. Barry Avrich

First runner-up: EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert, dir. Baz Luhrmann

Second runner-up: You Had to Be There: How the Toronto Godspell Ignited the Comedy Revolution…, dir. Nick Davis

People’s Choice Midnight Madness Award presented by Rogers: Nirvanna the Band the Show the Movie, dir. Matt Johnson

First runner-up: Obsession, dir. Curry Barker

Second runner-up: The Furious, dir. Kenji Tanigaki

What Hamnet’s Win At TIFF Means For The 2026 Oscars Race

Jessie Buckley as Agnes in Hamnet

Jessie Buckley as Agnes in Hamnet

Hamnet’s accolade at TIFF singles it out as an early favorite to take home the Best Picture Award at the 98th Academy Awards in 2026. Historically, the three films that receive either the top prize or runner-up honors have a leg up when it comes to the Oscars.

Most of the TIFF People’s Choice Award honorees over the last few years have been Academy Award-nominated, with the notable exception of The Life of Chuck. Many of these are Best Picture nominees or winners, with others also receiving nominations for writing or directing.

As mentioned, Zhao’s previous Academy Award-winning film, Nomadland, also took home the People’s Choice Award, meaning history might just repeat itself. However, del Toro is a previous Oscar winner himself, while Johnson has been nominated for Screenplay twice, both for Knives Out films.

Our Take On Hamnet’s Win At TIFF

Hamnet characters in forest

Hamnet characters in forest

Currently, it is difficult to tell how the 2026 Oscars race will pan out. The period for qualifying theatrical runs for the 98th Academy Awards spans from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, so there are still more films to be released.

If another 2025 release gains significant traction, it could prove to be an upset. Likewise, it is not uncommon for TIFF People’s Choice Award runner-ups to take home Best Picture, as Anora did in 2025. Nonetheless, Hamnet’s early accolades and positive word of mouth are likely to tip the scales in its favor.

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