Brendan Fraser‘s 2023 Oscar win was predicted more than two decades before it happened. Fraser is a well-known film and television actor who got his start in comedy movies of the 1990s, including Encino Man, George of the Jungle, and Blast from the Past, achieving even greater success when he starred in the 1999 blockbuster The Mummy.

However, he had never attracted much awards attention until he starred in 2022’s The Whale, a drama directed by Darren Aronofsky that was an adaptation of the Samuel D. Hunter play of the same name. The movie earned him an Oscar, a SAG Award, and a Critics’ Choice Award, in addition to nominations for a BAFTA and a Golden Globe.

Darren Aronofsky recently participated in a GQ video where he broke down nine of his iconic movies while promoting his new Austin Butler crime drama Caught Stealing. In the section on The Whale, he revealed that his longtime collaborator, producer Ari Handel, was “a huge fan.”

Handel, who was Aronofsky’s roommate at the time, bet a case of beer with their other roommate that Fraser would win an Oscar within the next 25 years. The director proudly shares that “we made it happen in 24 years.” Read Aronofsky’s full quote and check out the full video below:

I think the reason that we were interested in Brendan Fraser was because my main collaborator, my main producer, Ari Handel, was a huge fan. In college, he had made a bet with our other roommate that Brendan Fraser would win an Oscar in the next 25 years, over a case a beer. And we made it happen in 24 years.

What This Means For Brendan Fraser

Given the timeline of Fraser’s Oscar win, Aronofsky’s story most likely took place sometime in 1999, when The Mummy was on its way toward becoming the eighth highest-grossing domestic release of the year.

Even though the biggest Brendan Fraser movies at the time were comedies and adventure movies, which are not typically favored by the Academy Awards, his career up to that point had already allowed him to show off the range that would eventually win him his Oscar.

In addition to proving his facility with both high-concept comedies and summer blockbusters, by 1999, Fraser had already starred opposite Ian McKellen in the 1998 biographical drama Gods and Monsters, for which McKellen was nominated for an Oscar and Bill Condon was awarded one for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Brendan Fraser’s work in that movie highlighted his ability to craft complex dramatic performances, which was a skill he would periodically showcase over the years between Gods and Monsters and The Whale, perhaps most notably in a landmark tragicomic episode of season 3 of Scrubs.

Our Take On Darren Aronofsky’s Comments On Brendan Fraser

What this prediction reveals is that the career of Brendan Fraser had long been building toward his Oscar win, and thus the Darren Aronofsky movie may only be the beginning of his awards success. In fact, he may have another opportunity soon if his upcoming dramedy Rental Family attracts the attention of awards bodies in the 2025-2026 season.