Ridley Scott Will Lose His 2026 Sci-Fi Box Office Battle (& His Own $653M Hit Proves It)

Ridley Scott is soon to make his long-awaited return to science fiction, but a box office battle with another H๏τly-anticipated release mirroring his own work may affect his latest film’s haul. From Alien to Blade Runner, Ridley Scott’s movies include some of the greatest works of cinematic sci-fi in history, intriguing and challenging the minds of viewers.

Scott’s most recent work has mostly been in the realm of historical epics, including Napoleon, The Last Duel, and the long-awaited sequel to one of his most beloved films, Gladiator II. However, it hasn’t been since 2017’s Alien: Covenant that he’s graced the sci-fi genre that granted him so many accolades with his presence.

That’s looking to change as Scott makes his return to science fiction via The Dog Stars, an adaptation of the Peter Heller novel of the same name. Set in a post-apocalyptic world ravaged by a ᴅᴇᴀᴅly virus, the book revolves around a pilot who sets out on a journey to find the source of some new radio activity, possibly indicating other survivors.

Slated for release in March 2026, The Dog Stars will feature a stacked cast, including Jacob Elordi as the civilian pilot Hig and Josh Brolin as his ex-soldier survivalist companion, Bangley. Guy Pearce, Margaret Qualley, and Benedict Wong will also be lending their talents in supporting roles, further filling out the desolate post-apocalyptic world.

The Dog Stars Will Face Off Against Project Hail Mary At The Box Office

There’s Only Room For One Great Sci-Fi Victor In March 2026

However, March 2026 will offer some significant box office compeтιтion for Scott’s first science fiction film outside the Alien franchise in over a decade. Slated for release a mere week before The Dog Stars is Project Hail Mary, another original book adaptation sci-fi blockbuster starring Ryan Gosling as an amnesiac astronaut.

Both The Dog Stars and Project Hail Mary will undoubtedly be fighting each other for box office dominance, trying to occupy the same cinematic niche in the first quarter of 2026. Between the star power at-hand and the promise of a high-concept science fiction book adaptation, the two projects are eerily similar to one another.

Coming out in the space of a single week, it’s very likely that only one of the two films will be able to claim commercial victory, as the тιԍнт release window doesn’t give much room for sci-fi films not part of an existing franchise to both co-exist. Unfortunately for Scott, The Dog Stars seems to have the weaker chance of taking home victory.

Ridley Scott’s The Martian Proves Project Hail Mary Will Beat The Dog Stars

The Director’s Own Success Proves His Next Film May Be In Dire Straits

Ironically enough, the success of Scott’s own filmography proves just how much Project Hail Mary has going for it in the upcoming battle. Scott made a generous contribution to the niche genre of movies where Matt Damon is rescued with The Martian, adapting the book of the same name.

Also a cinematic adaptation of an Andy Weir novel, The Martian took home a staggering $653 million when it released in 2015, banking on Damon’s charisma and the strong foundation of Weir’s story. Casting Damon as Mark Whatney, who carries the majority of the film thanks to his isolation on Mars, was a stroke of genius that paid off.

It seems as though Project Hail Mary will be taking a page out of Scott’s playbook in order to defeat him at the box office. Project Hail Mary seems to be positioning Gosling to succeed in a similar manner to Damon’s performance, emphasizing his wit and charm as a stranded lone astronaut in a desolate survival scenario.

If history is anything to go by, this strategy should pay off big-time for Project Hail Mary. The Dog Stars Elordi simply hasn’t reached Gosling’s level of popularity, and with the recognizable success of the formula still in pop culture memory with The Martian, Scott’s own work remains an ominous indicator of his chances at financial victory.

On the other hand, Project Hail Mary has the enviable position of introducing some high-concept sci-fi with Gosling as a star, which echoes Denis Villeneuve’s attempts to do the same with his casting of the actor in Blade Runner 2049. While the sequel is critically beloved, Blade Runner 2049 was a mᴀssive box office flop, just like the original film.

Project Hail Mary‘s more difficult-to-understand concept and narrative retrograde amnesia could hurt it by following in the footsteps of Blade Runner 2049.

Just as Scott’s past sci-fi work may be an indicator of Project Hail Mary‘s strengths, the legacy sequel to one of his most iconic films may demonstrate its downfall. Compared to The Dog Stars, Project Hail Mary‘s more difficult-to-understand concept and narrative retrograde amnesia could hurt it by following in the footsteps of Blade Runner 2049.

Gosling’s latest film, The Fall Guy, also underperformed at the box office, hinting that as critically beloved as he may be, he often finds himself at the center of financial failures. The Dog Stars will also have the advantages of a fresh post-apocalyptic setting and compelling villains in the form of the Reapers from the book.

In The Dog Stars, Reapers are vicious raiders who prey on peaceful survivors in the post-apocalypse.

Still, no matter how much more compelling audiences may find The Dog Stars, at the end of the day, star power is simply too important to ignore. Not only does Gosling’s recognizability outrank any of Scott’s upcoming cast, but its similarity to The Martian gives it enough status as a spiritual sequel to fly light years ahead.

Which film will actually be critically acclaimed is another question entirely, and it’s very possible that The Dog Stars will be better regarded as time goes on. For now, sadly, Ridley Scott‘s own past success will come back to haunt him in the upcoming box office duel between his latest film and Project Hail Mary.

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