The John Wick franchise’s upcoming spinoff could potentially help it recover in a major way after its recent disappointment. The action franchise, which stars Keanu Reeves as the тιтular hitman, began with four increasingly lucrative installments before launching spinoffs, most recently the Ana de Armas-led feature From the World of John Wick: Ballerina.

Ballerina, which debuted in theaters on June 6, takes place between the events of John Wick: Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 and features returning characters including Wick, Winston Scott (Ian McShane), Charon (Lance Reddick), and the Director (Anjelica Huston). The movie is the first in the franchise not to be directed by Chad Stahelski, as Underworld‘s Len Wiseman stepped in.

The Ballerina box office has been disappointing. It is not necessarily failing, in spite of earning just $109.7 million worldwide at the time of writing against its reported $90 million budget. This is because Lionsgate typically covers up to two-thirds of their production costs with foreign pre-sales. Additionally, its VOD release and streaming revenue should add to its commercial prospects.

Why Ballerina Underperformed At The Box Office

There Are Multiple Possible Reasons Why Audiences Didn’t Rush To See It

Just because it is not a money-loser in and of itself, the fact that a franchise tentpole like Ballerina is just barely cresting $100 million makes it somewhat underwhelming. So far, it has also remained the franchise’s second lowest-grossing installment behind the original movie. Below, see a breakdown of the performance of all five John Wick movies:

This disappointing reception could be the result of Ballerina being the first theatrical feature not to center on Keanu Reeves’ John Wick, even though the character’s return in the movie was heavily advertised. Because the movie takes place before the character dies in Chapter 4, it also doesn’t mark his official resurrection in the franchise, so it may have felt inconsequential.

Additionally, the movie arrived after significant release date delays and the release of the shakily received 2023 Peacock series spinoff The Continental (at the time of writing, it has the franchise’s lowest Rotten Tomatoes score – 63% – and audience score – 77%), which may have worked in tandem to diminish general interest in the project.

While Stahelski stepped in to oversee reshoots on the movie, Len Wiseman’s participation in the project may have also eroded interest. The director is known for helming the generally poorly regarded Underworld franchise, and his most recent movie to earn a Fresh Rotten Tomatoes score before Ballerina was 2007’s Live Free or Die Hard, nearly two decades earlier.

Donnie Yen Gives John Wick’s Caine Spinoff A Major Box Office Weapon

The Star Is As Valuable As The Premise

The key to reviving the franchise could be John Wick‘s upcoming Caine spinoff, which is currently in pre-production. While it does not yet have an official release date, the movie was officially announced in April, with Donnie Yen set to both direct and reprise the role of Caine, the blind ᴀssᴀssin who he originally played in John Wick: Chapter 4.

The Caine movie is set to be the first spinoff in the franchise to take place after the events of John Wick: Chapter 4, which could entice audiences to theaters by offering insight into the fallout of the lead character’s death. The project, which follows Caine after leaving the High Table, is scheduled to begin shooting before the end of 2025.

Another reason that the Caine spinoff could thrive is the fact that Donnie Yen is a major star in China, which is one of the biggest box office markets in the world. A number of his Hong Kong martial arts movies have been popular in Mainland China, including the Ip Man franchise, which so far includes four installments and a spinoff movie.

Although China has been much more selective with which American movies play in regional theaters in recent years, Donnie Yen’s participation both in front of and behind the camera could help the upcoming John Wick spinoff overcome that hurdle and become a solid hit in China thanks to his renown, helping it thrive worldwide in a way that Ballerina couldn’t.

Caine’s Spinoff Working Is Necessary For John Wick’s Future

The First Two Spinoffs Have Been Too Shaky

Caine’s success will be key to the longevity of the franchise, because it needs to prove that the series can thrive without Keanu Reeves’ participation. Although the star has clearly shown interest in reprising the role, he will not star in the franchise forever, and upcoming John Wick projects must prove that they don’t need him in order to succeed.

So far, no spinoff has been an out-and-out failure. Ballerina is likely to turn some level of profit for Lionsgate and The Continental was not outright rejected. In fact, it was nominated for an Emmy for Outstanding Stunt Performance. However, its lukewarm critical reception combined with Ballerina‘s underwhelming box office could indicate that diminishing returns are imminent.

If the Caine spinoff similarly fails to live up to its potential, the financial risk could ultimately become too great for installments without the lead character. This would potentially mean that the John Wick franchise will die on the vine as soon as Reeves decides he is done playing the iconic character, which is why Yen’s appeal is a huge benefit.