2025 has already boasted some impressive box office hits, but the best is yet to come. James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash is set for release on December 19, 2025. It will continue the series after the director had two successes with Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water.
This third installment will return to explore the Sully family, including Jake, Neytiri, and their surviving children, Kiri, Lo’ak, and Tuk. The film will also introduce the Ash people, a Na’vi clan that is at war with other communities. Like its predecessors, the film is expected to have a huge budget and be stocked with moments of impressive spectacle.
The sci-fi franchise is planned to go past Avatar 3. Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 were announced years ago, as part of a multipart sequel to the successful 2009 film. Since then, their release dates (along with those of the eventual 2022 film The Way of Water and this year’s Fire and Ash) have been pushed multiple times.
Despite the delays, Avatar 3 is finally arriving this year. If successful, the film could cement Cameron’s trilogy as one of the most fruitful series of all time. But this creates a lot of pressure for Fire and Ash, in a way the franchise has yet to experience.
The Future Of The Avatar Franchise Rests On Avatar 3’s Performance
Avatar: Fire And Ash Has To Do Well
While it is set up in a good position for its predecessors, Avatar: Fire and Ash is now in a place where it has to do well. Firstly, it needs to make money to offset its cost alone. The Way of Water was one of the most expensive films ever made, with a total tab of $350 million, and the third installment’s budget is probably similar.
If this third film were to flop, however, it could jeopardize the sequels’ viability to finish production.
Including the cost of publicity and distribution, which will be plentiful for a film like this, big Hollywood movies usually need to bring in about 2.5x their budgets at the box office to break even and turn a profit. If Avatar 3 has a similar budget to the second film, this means it needs something in the range of $875 million to break even.
The pressure is on to perform this well or better since the fate of the series hangs in the balance. Cameron confirmed Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 would happen in January 2023, given The Way of Water‘s profit. If this third film were to flop, however, it could jeopardize the sequels’ viability to finish production.
Avatar 1 & 2 Didn’t Have This Type Of Pressure
Avatar 2 And 3 SH๏τ Back-To-Back
This is the first time in the history of the Pandora-set franchise that there has tangibly been this type of pressure. Avatar began as an original movie, and there was no sequel written before its release. So, if it had not done well, it would not be considered any greater failure than any other box office miss, as there were no plans to undermine.
When the next installment of Avatar came around, Cameron and his team decided to shoot the next two films back-to-back. While these movies still require extensive post-production work, Avatar 3 was less likely to be scrapped because the initial on-set production costs have already been incurred.
Avatar 4 (and 5) do not have that same sense of security. Cameron has noted that the scripts have been written for the next two sequels, and has even gone on to sing their praises. Despite this forward progress, they have not been filmed. So, it seems Avatar 3‘s performance could really end up being the deciding factor.
Will Avatar 3 Do Enough To Guarantee Avatar 4 & 5 Happen?
It Should Be A Big Hit
Even with this pressure, there is no reason to believe Avatar 3 will not do well. After all, its predecessors were not just blockbuster hits, but among the highest-grossing films of all time. Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water are the first and third highest-grossing movies of all time at the worldwide box office.
Avengers: Endgame is the second-highest-grossing movie of all time.
The Avatar films also have a global appeal, which makes their chances even stronger. Even if Avatar 3 did not reach quite the same heights, it could still do $1.5 billion or more, and pretty easily. The pressure is still on for it to perform, but it would be incredibly surprising if this franchise had a major drop-off.
Avatar 4 currently has a release date set for December 21, 2029, and Avatar 5 is set for December 19, 2031.
