F1 The Movie has the potential to be one of the biggest blockbusters of the year so far. The film is a racing action movie starring A-list actor Brad Pitt, who plays a retired Formula One driver who comes onto the track again to train a younger star. In addition to Pitt, the cast includes Damson Idris, Javier Bardem, Kerry Condon, Tobias Menzies, and Sarah Niles.
F1 has a built-in audience in that it will touch on the highest class of worldwide racing. This high-intensity motor sport draws in viewers both in-person and on television screens, gaining an international audience. The movie is directed by Joseph Kosinski, which is a good sign for its success. Kosinski previously helmed Top Gun: Maverick, which was highly acclaimed upon its 2022 release. The sequel also made over $1.4 billion in theaters, representing a record-breaking haul.
Top Gun: Maverick was also acclaimed for its use of spectacle and impressive cinematography. F1 will follow in these footsteps, trading out jets for speeding cars. However, as its June 27 release date fast approaches, the question of whether F1 will make back its budget remains.
F1 The Movie’s Budget Is Lower Than $300 Million
The Producer & Director Dispute The Reported Figure
One complication in evaluating F1‘s theatrical viability is the mixed reports on how much the film actually cost to make. Initial reports claimed that the film had a $300 million budget, which would be excessively high, and even more than films like Top Gun: Maverick.
However, those working on the film have disputed these figures. Producer Jerry Bruckheimer said that the estimate was “tens of millions out of whack in the wrong direction.” He cited regional rebates as reasons for saving on some costs.
Kosinski added that he found budget overreporting to be a chronic problem in films that he has worked on. He noted that he is “not sure where that number came from” for F1. However, neither creative offered a concrete, adjusted budget.
Even ᴀssuming the budget is somewhere under $300 million, F1 The Movie was still made for an extremely high price. As such, they will need to make significant money at the box office in order to turn a profit.
F1 The Movie’s Opening Weekend Box Office Projections
The Film Is Slated To Do Better Overseas
According to recent ᴅᴇᴀᴅline predictions, F1 is set to open to at least $115 million globally. This total is made up of an estimated $40 to $50 million in North America and $75 million in international markets. That said, the box office tracking firm NRG estimated F1 to make around $38 million domestically, which was underneath the lower end of ᴅᴇᴀᴅline‘s estimate.
These predictions are based off of strong early ticket sales for F1. Specifically, reports say that there are a fair number of IMAX sales for the Thursday and Friday showings this week. Some reports also predict that the presales for the film in the U.S. and Canada are ahead of those for films like Gladiator II and Pitt’s own Bullet Train.
Will F1 The Movie Be A Box Office Success?
It May Not Need As Much Theatrical Money As One Would Think
Typically, films need around 2.5x their budget in order to be a box office success. Estimating F1‘s budget to be somewhere between $200 and $300 million, this would necessitate a worldwide gross between $500 million and $650 million to break even and turn a profit.
This total is a big ask for several reasons. For one, even Pitt’s highest-grossing movie as a lead actor, World War Z, made just $531.8 million worldwide. As such, F1 would likely have to be his highest-grossing ever in order to significantly profit. It would also have to maintain momentum against the release of Jurᴀssic World Rebirth the following week.
That said, F1 is also an Apple movie. So, while it is getting a theatrical release, the company is also likely banking on the film to do big business on streaming and digital.
As such, there are more avenues for F1 The Movie to succeed financially other than just its box office returns. A box office success will be good for the film, but it is possible that Apple has enough plans for the movie that it could still be a huge moneymaker without bringing in $500 million or more.