Netflix and Greta Gerwig’s upcoming The Chronicles of Narnia movie has a complicated task to accomplish in terms of the box office when either result comes with further implications for the streaming giant. Following the mᴀssive success of Barbie, the Oscar-nominated writer-director was tapped to helm Netflix’s long-awaited Chronicles of Narnia reboot. In the last few months, it has been confirmed that Gerwig will be starting the new series with The Magician’s Nephew, essentially a prequel novel that focuses on the creation of Narnia.

We have also gotten a few exciting casting announcements, including Promising Young Woman and Maestro‘s Carey Mulligan as Digory Kirke’s mother, and Barbie‘s Emma Mackey as the infamous White Witch. It is also rumored that Daniel Craig will be Digory’s evil Uncle Andrew, while Meryl Streep, very intriguingly, is said to be in talks to voice a gender-swapped Aslan. Despite the challenges Gerwig’s Narnia movie faces, it has all the components so far to be a huge hit. However, no matter how it does with critics or at the box office, Narnia poses a troublesome dilemma for Netflix.

Greta Gerwig’s Chronicles Of Narnia Movie Will Have To Fight To Avoid Being The Franchise’s Lowest-Grossing Movie

The Narnia Movies Grossed Less With Each Installment

Back in 2005, Disney’s The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe was a mᴀssive success. However, the franchise eventually fell out of favor and was abandoned — hence Netflix acquiring the rights and starting from scratch — due to diminishing box office returns. 2010’s The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader made the least money, grossing $415 million dollars worldwide. This means that 2026’s The Magician’s Nephew needs to gross upwards of $400 million, lest it be the lowest-grossing Narnia movie to date, not a promising start for the hopeful franchise.

Additionally, the rule of thumb is that a movie needs to gross two and a half times its budget to break even. While the previous Narnia movie series is unfinished due to not making as much money as it did at the start, they generally accomplished this. Gerwig\s Narnia movie is probably looking at a budget between $150 and $200 million; if it is at the higher end of this estimate, it will need to gross closer to $500 million to not lose Netflix money. However, given the family-friendly story and the clout surrounding Narnia and Gerwig’s name, this is not unattainable.

Greta Gerwig’s Narnia Movie Not Being The Lowest Grossing Will Be A Problem For Netflix

Netflix Might Have To Eat Their Words On Movie Theaters

Yet even a successful Narnia movie could pose problems for Netflix, as the streamer’s primary modality is streaming and subscriptions. As recently as the spring 2025, Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos said that going to movie theaters is “an outdated concept” (via Variety). The company provided limited theatrical releases of Glᴀss Onion and Emilia Pérez, but these тιтles were largely seen as Netflix exclusives to be watched on the streaming service. However, there is more appeal to seeing a movie like Narnia in theaters, with its fantasy spectacle.

Family-friendly movies also tend to do better at the box office, given the wider breadth of their potential audiences. Narnia doing well in theaters would contradict Netflix’s business model, indicating that they should be investing more in traditional theatrical releases. Yet where does this leave their streaming exclusives? When the CEO was saying something as definitive as movie theaters are ᴅᴇᴀᴅ only a few months ago, Narnia could drastically prove him wrong.

Greta Gerwig’s Narnia Movie’s Box Office Could Still Define Netflix’s Future

Netflix Could Start Splitting Its Efforts & Moviegoing Could See A Resurgence

However, Narnia making this point to Netflix could also be hugely beneficial for the streamer and the wider industry. The company has been leaning into streaming when it could better divide its efforts. There are certainly some movies that would do better as exclusively streaming releases, depending on their target audience. However, people who watched and loved a movie in theaters will be pleased to see it arrive on streaming, and Netflix could get a secondary boost a few months after a theatrical run.

It would also help the industry to keep the moviegoing experience alive if Netflix released more movies that it is reasonably confident will do well in theaters. Many more genuinely good тιтles have struggled at the box office in the age of streaming, and Netflix actually backing the movie theater economy could turn the tide. Executives, of course, want to see that this is going to make them money — and The Chronicles of Narnia could be one of the unique тιтles that revitalize a classic format.

Source: Box Office Mojo, Variety