Is Thunderbolts* A Box Office Disappointment, Or The New Normal For The MCU?

While Thunderbolts*‘ poor box office performance seems surprising, it reflects the MCU’s worrying box office trends. Jake Schreier’s Thunderbolts* has been one of the best-reviewed MCU installments in a long time, holding an 88% critics score and a 93% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. Besides Thunderbolts*‘ exciting post-credits tease of The Fantastic Four: First Steps and Avengers: Doomsday, Thunderbolts* delivers a touching story about mental health and friendship, shining the spotlight on a group of anti-heroes who hadn’t led their own MCU movie before.

Thunderbolts* is a remarkably consistent movie from beginning to end. It doesn’t feature any multiversal character or plot element, nor does it reference as many previous installments as the usual Marvel entry. Thunderbolts*‘ ending presents a final twist that sets up future storylines starring the same team, but doesn’t focus on laying the foundations for a direct sequel. Unfortunately, Thunderbolts*‘ positive qualities haven’t been able to win general audiences over, and Phase 5’s final movie has struggled to climb the MCU’s box office rankings.

Thunderbolts* Is The Third Lowest Grossing MCU Movie

Thunderbolts* Is The Third Phase 5 Entry To Join The MCU’s Top 5 Lowest-Grossing Movie List

At $357.4 million in its fourth week in theaters, Thunderbolts* remains in the bottom third spot of the MCU’s worldwide box office rankings. Thunderbolts* is only above The Incredible Hulk‘s $265.5 million and The Marvels‘ $199.7 million (via TheNumbers). Thunderbolts* can still reach Captain America: The First Avenger‘s $357.4 million and Black Widow‘s $370.5 million, but surpᴀssing Eternals‘ $401.7 million and Captain America: Brave New World‘s $413.6 million might be a little harder, and matching Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings‘ $432.2 million anytime soon seems unlikely.

After one month in theaters, Thunderbolts* still hasn’t reached The Incredible Hulk‘s inflation-adjusted $364.6 million

Thunderbolts*‘ worldwide box office ranks even lower when inflation is taken into account. After one month in theaters, Thunderbolts* still hasn’t reached The Incredible Hulk‘s inflation-adjusted $364.6 million. When adjusted for inflation, the next lowest-grossing movie already seems out of reach for Thunderbolts* as well: Captain America: The First Avenger‘sinflation-adjusted $523 million places a tough benchmark to reach for Thunderbolts*‘ dwindling performance.

The Thunderbolts* Box Office Is Part Of A Larger Trend For MCU Movies

Only Major MCU Events Have Broken The MCU’s Decreasing Box Office Trend

Wolverine and ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool's masks at the end of ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool & Wolverine

Unfortunately, Thunderbolts*‘ disappointing box office performance is part of a bigger problem. Phases 4 and 5 have delivered decreasing results despite Marvel Studios’ larger budgets, output, and variety of content. Solo installments such as Black Widow, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, and Captain America: Brave New World have fallen short of the standards established by similar Infinity Saga entries. Team-up films have also underperformed considerably, with Eternals, The Marvels, and Thunderbolts* at the very bottom of the MCU’s box office rankings.

Throughout Phases 4 and 5, only one type of MCU movie has gone against the Multiverse Saga’s negative box office trend. The major crossover, multiverse-themed event movies Spider-Man: No Way Home and ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool & Wolverine both zoomed to the very top of Marvel’s box office records. Despite being surrounded by underperforming entries, Spider-Man: No Way Home claimed the MCU’s third spot with $1.921 billion, and ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool & Wolverine claimed the sixth spot with $1.338 billion. Naturally, Spider-Man: No Way Home and ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool & Wolverine‘s major actor returns and homage to previous Marvel franchises were a key factor in their success.

Phase	Multiverse Saga Movie	Worldwide Box Office
Phase 4	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$1.921 billion
Phase 5	ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool & Wolverine	$1.338 billion
Phase 4	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	$952.2 million
Phase 4	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$859.2 million
Phase 5	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3	$845.5 million
Phase 4	Thor: Love and Thunder	$760.9 million
Phase 5	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	$476.0 million
Phase 4	Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings	$432.2 million
Phase 5	Captain America: Brave New World	$413.6 million
Phase 4	Eternals	$401.7 million
Phase 4	Black Widow	$379.7 million
Phase 5	Thunderbolts*	$357.4 million
Phase 5	The Marvels	$199.7 million

Major multiversal events apart, Phase 5 delivered fewer box office hits for Marvel. Only two of the MCU’s six Phase 5 movies crossed the $500 million threshold: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 earned $845.5 million as the final chapter in James Gunn’s MCU trilogy, and ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool & Wolverine formally introduced mutants with an astounding $1.338 billion. Meanwhile, three of Phase 4’s seven movies were indisputable hits: Spider-Man: No Way Home earned $1.921 billion, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness earned $952.2 million, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever earned $859.2 million.

The MCU Is Poised For A Major Box Office Comeback

Phase 6 Is Set To Break MCU Box Office Records

Marvel Studios’ recent box office trends don’t seem like a good omen for the MCU, but Phase 6 promises to turn things around. The Fantastic Four: First Steps introduces one of Marvel’s most famous properties in the MCU just in time for Marvel Studios’ next Avengers crossover. One year after The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Spider-Man: Brand New Day will take up where the record-breaking Spider-Man: No Way Home left off, beginning a new chapter in Peter Parker’s MCU journey and possibly kicking off a new Spider-Man movie trilogy.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day is followed by the star-studded Avengers: Doomsday. Avengers: Doomsday aims to take the Avengers: Endgame formula to the next level with over two dozen major Marvel characters from all over the multiverse, Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom, and the beginning of the end of the Marvel multiverse as fans know it. Just one year later, Avengers: Secret Wars will become the most ambitious blockbuster of all time, presumably with higher stakes, an even larger cast, and a final farewell for several iconic portrayals of Marvel heroes and villains. Despite recent disappointments like Thunderbolts*, Phase 6 is shaping up to be Marvel Studios’ most successful period so far.