Summer at the box office kicked off with the release of Lilo & Sтιтch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, which made a splash during its opening weekend. However, both seem to be in the shadow of another film coming later this year. With all the opening weekend box office records set by Lilo & Sтιтch, it looks as though the summer 2025 season will be strong, especially after recent successes like Sinners. With the potential for several billion-dollar movies this year, things look auspicious for a few upcoming films.

The summer box office has been healing after several years affected by both the COVID-19 pandemic and the SAG-AFTRA strikes. The total box office, reported by Box Office Mojo, suffered under this weight when 2024 earned just $3.6 billion. This was lower than 2023’s decent year, helped by the release of Barbie and Oppenheimer to gross $4 billion. Cinemas need business, and the most anticipated summer 2025 movies could help to keep the industry alive and vital. With great pressure on films like Superman, another film looks likely to win the summer box office.

New Tracking Data Has One Summer Movie Ahead Of The Pack

With Plenty Of Marketing Still To Go

The Quorom, through Puck News, recently shared some tracking information for the upcoming summer 2025 movies, and it appears as though Jurᴀssic World Rebirth is outpacing the other 2025 summer movies in terms of both awareness and interest. Most notably, interest in the film seems to be increasing over time. Following the release of a great Jurᴀssic World Rebirth trailer, and with more marketing ahead, the film seems to be setting itself up well to make a significant dent in the summer box office.

Other films are also tracking strongly, with Karate Kid: Legends scoring surprisingly high in both interest and awareness. Superman also has some of the best tracking for this summer, with a score of 56 for awareness and the second highest for interest, at 49. However, these scores appear to have fallen over previous tracking, suggesting a decline in interest. Rebirth‘s numbers are notably higher than any of these, with a score of 67 for awareness and 60 for interest.

The summer could be a strong one beyond this, as additional films like The Fantastic Four: First Steps are too far out to be included in this eight-week tracking data. However, none of the films on this list seem to be anywhere close to the numbers of Jurᴀssic World. How to Train Your Dragon holds the second-highest awareness score, at 59, but interest in the film is much lower, at 44. With all of this in mind, circumstances seem to be setting up for Jurᴀssic World Rebirth to potentially be the biggest movie of the summer.

Doubt Jurᴀssic World Rebirth At Your Own Peril

This Franchise Has Truly Global Appeal

Even though there are many reasons to suspect Rebirth will not connect, such as the fact that it is the first Jurᴀssic World that will not show in IMAX, or the declining quality perceived in the franchise, the new film still has a great chance to connect. Following the most anticipated June releases of films like Ballerina and F1, audiences will be hungry for a science-fiction action-horror hybrid with enormous franchise ties. With the film opening before Superman and The Fantastic Four, it will also have some runway as the biggest series in the multiplex.

There are some reasons to doubt Rebirth‘s box office potential. The Jurᴀssic World trilogy each earned less than the previous installment, and audience distaste for the brand grew as each film was more poorly received than the last. However, the filmmakers have worked to essentially reboot the franchise with this new installment. With a new cast and creative team and a tone that harkens back to creating the terror from the original Jurᴀssic Park, it seems likely that audiences will be willing to give this series another chance.

Rebirth Is Fixing Everything Dominion Got Wrong

The тιтle Does Half The Work

The most recent Jurᴀssic World Dominion made a fortune at the box office, but the Rotten Tomatoes score for the film sits at a low 29% with critics. The film spent its marketing focusing on tying all the stories together, bringing in the Jurᴀssic Park and Jurᴀssic World characters together, and culminating in what was supposed to be an exciting and important story. However, the plot of that film became muddy and confusing, and the predominant element that worked for most audiences was the action involving all kinds of interesting dinosaurs.

Fortunately, Rebirth seems to be recognizing this and looks to iterate on this theme instead. Thrown together quickly, with the film being announced just over a year ago, the upcoming installment looks to essentially serve as a reboot of the franchise. The new movie has brought in the beloved Scarlett Johansson as the lead and has abandoned the park settings of the World franchise to create a smaller, more action-centric story. The film’s marketing has highlighted the horror and adventure rather than the plot, calling to mind comparisons to Jurᴀssic Park III.

Another clear point of comparison to Jurᴀssic World is the Transformers franchise. Similarly, those films were based on a popular property, and each one was more poorly received than the last. This led to declining interest in the brand, which was mitigated by essentially rebooting the franchise with a new cast in the fourth film, Transformers: Age of Extinction, which went on to gross $1.1 billion. However, poor reception to Age of Extinction hurt the series, causing subsequent installments to decline at the box office. Following that trajectory, Rebirth needs to be beloved to save the franchise.

With Gareth Edwards coming in to direct, and David Koepp returning to write for the first time since The Lost World: Jurᴀssic Park, the film is clearly executing a different vision than the previous ​​​​​​installments. The new film looks to reinvigorate the franchise, and box office tracking is making it look increasingly likely that Jurᴀssic World Rebirth could be the biggest movie of summer 2025. Whether or not this happens, it’s all but ᴀssured to be a big hit for Universal when it releases in July.

Source: Puck News