Warning! This article contains major SPOILERS for Thunderbolts*While the opening weekend box office numbers for the MCU’s most recent movie, Thunderbolts*, will be a good indicator for the movie’s worldwide and domestic success in the future, it’s safe to say that it has started strong critically. Just three months after Captain America: Brave New World divided fans and critics, Thunderbolts* picked up the slack and united both parties in appreciation. Depending on whether this translates to box office glory, it may have sparked a new franchise in the form of the New Avengers.
Thunderbolts* proved to be anything but a frivolous MCU installment. Despite starring some of the MCU’s less prominent characters like Red Guardian and Ghost, it also debuted the MCU’s most powerful and perhaps consequential superhero yet: Sentry. Furthermore, the Thunderbolts* post-credits scene is one of the most important of the entire Multiverse Saga as it directly tees up the events of Avengers: Doomsday. This sets the movie in good stead to fare well at the global box office, despite the shortcomings of the current team’s collective star power.
Thunderbolts* Total Box Office (So Far)
Thunderbolts* Current Box Office Results Explained
After the first weekend, Thunderbolts* is on a modest, if expected, trajectory. As of Sunday, May 4, The Numbers reports that Thunderbolts* is projected to open to $76 million domestically and $86.1 million internationally, bringing the total international gross to $162.1 million. This brings it to within the vicinity of Thunderbolts*‘ $180 million production budget, which is around the median production budget for MCU installments and matches the budget of Thor: Ragnarok and Captain America: Brave New World. Thunderbolts* is likely to gross considerably more than this budget, but whether it breaks even remains to be seen.
As a general rule, movies need to make 2.5 times their production budget to break even, which means Thunderbolts* would have to make $450 million.
$86.1 million is on the lower end of opening weekend results for MCU movies, and falls short of the opening weekend for Captain America: Brave New World, which grossed $88.8 million domestically in its opening weekend. 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp and 2021’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings grossed around the same in their opening weekends, with the former going on to gross $623 million globally and the latter $432 million. At this point, Thunderbolts* could go either way.
Thunderbolts* Opening Weekend Box Office
Thunderbolts* Sits On The Lower End Of The MCU’s Opening Weekends
Thunderbolts* opened modestly, with a domestic gross that, under neutral conditions, might suggest that it will fail to break even. This is on the lower end, though still within the predicted box office for Thunderbolts*, which notably stars a litany of minor characters who are less likely to win over casual moviegoers than Red Hulk or ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool. Thankfully, for Thunderbolts* and the MCU, widespread acclaim from critics and audiences is an optimistic sign for the movie’s trajectory, as positive word of mouth will help keep it at the forefront of the genre’s zeitgeist.
Movie |
Budget |
Domestic Opening Weekend |
International Opening Weekend |
Total Opening Weekend |
---|---|---|---|---|
Thunderbolts* |
$180,000,000 |
$76,000,000 |
$86,100,000 |
$162,100,000 |
Ant-Man and the Wasp, for instance, grossed just $75.8 million domestically in its opening weekend, but garnered rave reviews from critics and ultimately grossed a total of $623 million worldwide. On the other hand, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings starred an unknown character and grossed just $432 worldwide after a similar opening weekend, despite earning even better reviews. This makes it difficult to predict which route Thunderbolts* will take, as the Thunderbolts* characters are lesser known, but at least not brand new like Shang-Chi was in 2021.
How The Thunderbolts* Box Office Compares To Other May MCU Movies
May is a crucial slot for movies as it kicks off the summer blockbuster season and additionally benefits from accumulating ticket sales throughout the entire summer period. May is also the month that the MCU typically releases its Avengers movies, so it stands to reason that Thunderbolts* earned this slot after the ending bestowed the тιтular team with their new name, the New Avengers. Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame were initially billed for the May slot, but were released one week earlier in the US (in late April) to synchronize with European release dates and stifle spoilers.
Movie |
Domestic Opening Weekend |
International Box Office Total |
---|---|---|
The Avengers (2012) |
$207,438,708 |
$1,515,100,211 |
Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) |
$191,271,109 |
$1,395,316,979 |
Iron Man 3 (2013) |
$174,144,585 |
$1,214,630,956 |
Captain America: Civil War (2016) |
$179,139,142 |
$1,151,899,586 |
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) |
$187,420,998 |
$952,224,986 |
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) |
$146,510,104 |
$869,087,963 |
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023) |
$118,414,021 |
$845,555,777 |
Iron Man 2 (2010) |
$128,122,480 |
$621,156,389 |
Iron Man (2008) |
$102,118,668 |
$584,877,827 |
Thor (2011) |
$65,723,338 |
$449,326,618 |
Thunderbolts* (2025) |
$76,000,000 |
$162,100,000 |
Compared to other May MCU movies, Thunderbolts* has the second-lowest opening weekend, beating only Thor‘s $65.7 million domestic gross. The bar to clear is particularly high, with four of the MCU’s eleven billion-dollar-grossing movies being disproportionately handed the May slot. Nevertheless, Marvel Studios is in the process of pulling an interesting move by altering Thunderbolts* billboards so that the movie is instead enтιтled The New Avengers. This unorthodox tactic might help to supercharge ticket sales and help Thunderbolts* reach a similar level of success as other May-released Avengers movies.
What The Thunderbolts* Box Office Means For The MCU
Thunderbolts* Is A Consequential MCU Installment
It’s no secret that the MCU, and the Multiverse Saga specifically, has been stuttering recently. After Captain America: Brave New World fell short of expectations, Marvel needs another win, and whether Thunderbolts* is the movie to provide this is still uncertain. The relative obscurity of the characters that comprise the Thunderbolts compared to the Avengers was always going to make their team-up movie a risky endeavor, and this may yet bear out in the box office results.
The New Avengers will also play a key role in Avengers: Doomsday, meaning Marvel Studios will have to pull out all the stops to ensure audiences see Thunderbolts* to get invested in these characters ahead of their next appearance.
It might be that Marvel Studios overestimated the star power of Bucky Barnes, or the real-world star power of Florence Pugh. Then again, the unconventional decision to switch the name of Thunderbolts* to The New Avengers is bold and potentially fortune-changing. Each Avengers movie has, after all, grossed over $1 billion at the global box office, which bestows power on the name itself. Combined with positive word of mouth, this could see Thunderbolts* experience a meteoric rise in the coming weeks.
The success of Thunderbolts* should additionally influence whether a new franchise is born from this debut. Guardians of the Galaxy starred some distinctly obscure characters when it released in 2014, but the sheer quality of their debut movie sparked one of the MCU’s most dependable franchises. Then again, Guardians of the Galaxy was released when the MCU was more stable and popular, and general dissatisfaction with the Multiverse Saga as a whole might work against the New Avengers.
While positive reviews for Thunderbolts* may improve sentiments towards the current MCU, overall faith can only be restored if audiences actually watch the movie. The New Avengers will also play a key role in Avengers: Doomsday, meaning Marvel Studios will have to pull out all the stops to ensure audiences see Thunderbolts* to get invested in these characters ahead of their next appearance. Whatever the case, a decent box office take-home might set the incoming MCU Phase 6 in good stead to measure up to the heights of the lauded MCU Phase 3.
Upcoming MCU Movies
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Thunderbolts*
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The Fantastic Four: First Steps
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Avengers: Doomsday
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Spider-Man: Brand New Day
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Avengers: Secret Wars
Source: The Numbers