Thunderbolts* is set for a middling debut while Sinners continues its incredible box office streak. Thunderbolts* is the newest theatrical outing for the long-running Marvel Cinematic Universe, following the formation of the тιтular team of villains and antiheroes, which includes Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan), Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh), Red Guardian (David Harbour), Taskmaster (Olga Kurylenko), Ghost (Hannah John-Kamen), and U.S. Agent (Wyatt Russell). The movie arrives during the third weekend of the record-breaking Sinners release. The Ryan Coogler-directed Michael B. Jordan horror movie premiered with the best-ever Easter weekend debut for an R-rated movie.
Per The Hollywood Reporter, as of Saturday morning, Thunderbolts* is projected to have a 3-day opening weekend that lands between $73 and $77 million at the domestic box office. Its global opening weekend is also estimated to earn between $160 and $175 million. While this sees it drawing close to matching its $180 million budget, it falls below the debut of the year’s previous MCU movie, Captain America: Brave New World, which had an $88.8 million domestic debut and a $192.4 million global debut.
Meanwhile, Sinners has continued to show outstanding audience hold, especially for a horror movie. It is currently projected to gross a 3-day total of $33.7 million at the domestic box office during its third weekend in theaters, an astonishingly narrow drop of less than 30%. It previously had the second-smallest week 2 drop for an R-rated horror movie in history.
It has also crossed two major milestones in a single day, with its Friday actuals of $9.5 million in North America pushing its cumulative domestic total past the $150 million milestone and its $2.7 million international gross sending its global total past $200 million.
What This Means For Thunderbolts*
It May Not Turn A Profit In Theaters
Even if the Thunderbolts* release debuts at the lower end of its projections, it will have become the 11th highest-grossing movie of the year so far worldwide over the course of just three days. However, the fact that it has fallen behind the debut of Captain America: Brave New World is probably not a good sign. Movies generally need to earn back two and a half times their budgets in theaters in order to break even, and because both movies reportedly cost $180 million, this would most likely place both movies’ break-even points somewhere around $450 million.
Break-even points are so high because theaters keep half of ticket sales and marketing costs are not factored into production budgets.
Captain America failed to hit that milestone, only grossing $414.8 million at the worldwide box office by the end of its run. If it stays on a trajectory similar to its predecessor, the new installment may only end up grossing roughly $360 million worldwide, a total that would make it the third lowest-grossing MCU movie behind The Marvels and The Incredible Hulk. However, Thunderbolts* reviews have been stronger, earning it an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score with a 95% audience score compared to Captain America‘s 48% and 78%, which could translate to stronger word of mouth and an improved audience hold.
Our Take On The Weekend Box Office
Thunderbolts* Still Has A Chance To Grow
Ultimately, both Thunderbolts* and Sinners have a clear path forward, at least for one more weekend. The former could regain some ground and the latter could continue its streak of narrow drops quite easily, as May 9 only sees a few smaller new releases, such as Fight or Flight and Clown in a Cornfield, coming to theaters ahead of the debut of the upcoming franchise horror movie Final Destination: Bloodlines on May 16, which will be followed by the one-two punch of the blockbusters Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and the live-action Lilo & Sтιтch on May 23.
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Source: THR
