Following Sinners‘ above-projection opening weekend box office, a new report about the movie’s breakeven point complicates the studio’s narrative on how much it needs to gross to become profitable. With original, director-driven movies that hit in theaters becoming increasingly rare, hopes are high for it to perform and encourage studios to take more chances, though worries about its potential to turn a profit have dogged it for weeks. After Sinners opened to $48 million domestically, the highest for an original movie this decade, some negative-leaning media coverage sparked intense debate over how the Black-led film was being discussed.

Interest in its box office has only grown, but a new report suggests ᴀssessing its success will be complicated. Per Puck‘s Matt Belloni, Warner Bros. projects a breakeven point of $170 million, accounting for ancillary revenue to come from home entertainment sales, which is an unusual practice. But, with the standard breakeven point around 2.5x the production budget, the movie would need to make $225 million before it can start to turn a profit. Further complicating matters, Puck‘s reporting suggests the movie’s real budget is closer to $105 million, which would raise the traditional breakeven point to $260 million.

Belloni cites two insiders as having claimed director Ryan Coogler chose to defer some of his fixed fee to cover overages during shooting, which would lower the required box office somewhat. But even so, the studio’s lower breakeven value would suggest a less-than-typical marketing spend, despite WB’s insistence it was “commensurate with a film of this budget and with the kind of star power behind Sinners.” As is often typical of the infamous Hollywood accounting, unless Sinners blows past the highest of these numbers, its true level of success may be difficult to perceive from the outside.

What This Means For Sinners’ Chances Of Success

The Movie Will Need To Perform Well, But Early Signs Are Promising

There are many ways a movie can make money these days outside of theatrical performance, but hopes will be high for Sinners‘ box office performance. The movie has posted the highest opening for an original movie since 2019’s excellent Jordan Peele horror Us, and this could see it well on its way to a strong performance. Coogler is one of the most talented and interesting directors working in Hollywood right now, and the appeal of seeing him create original movies is something that is resonating with audiences.

If the budget is larger than initially expected, the movie might find it difficult to make much of a profit, but, as one of the most exciting and well-received original horrors in recent times, Sinners could have some strong box-office legs. The success of the movie will be important as it would show there is still an appeтιтe for original IPs that are not based on other mediums, and might encourage studios to make bolder creative choices. Sinners is already regarded as one of Coogler’s best movies, and could be a seminal release for the future of original filmmaking.

Our Take On Sinners’ Success Chances

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