A list of contenders for the Cannes Film Festival was recently released, and while they are competing for the coveted Palme d’Or, these films may also make a splash at the 2026 Oscars. Although the Oscars are often considered one of the biggest nights in movies, festivals like Cannes are just as pivotal. Movies like Pulp Fiction, Parasite, Taxi Driver, and Apocalypse Now have all won the Palme d’Or, and went on to become legendary in the cinema community. Oftentimes, the films that succeed at Cannes have a huge impact on the Oscars race nearly a year later.

The 78th Cannes Film Festival will begin on Tuesday, May 13 and run until Saturday, May 24. At this time, there are about 19 movies in contention for the Palme d’Or, and more will be added according to the festival’s general delegate, Thierry Frémaux. Considering how pivotal movies like Anora and Emilia Pérez were to the 2025 Oscars, this year’s Cannes contestants could be just as important. The following are five early predictions for the Cannes contenders at the 2026 Oscars.

5

Paul Mescal Will Get A Best Actor Nomination Post Gladiator 2

Mescal Will Be Up Against Stiff Compeтιтion

One prediction for the 2026 Oscars that seems quite likely after the recent Cannes announcement is that Paul Mescal will be nominated for Best Actor. To some, this theory may seem likely because of his upcoming historical drama, Hamnet, directed by Chloé Zhao, in which he will play William Shakespeare. However, I think it is his other historical drama, The History of Sound, that will snag him the nomination. This book-to-movie adaptation follows two men who travel throughout New England recording folk songs in the summer of 1919. Based on a beautiful story, Mescal could shine in this tragic romance.

If Mescal does earn a Best Actor nomination, it will be particularly exciting because of how Gladiator 2 fared in 2024. The movie did well financially and critically, but was absent from the Oscars, leaving Mescal empty-handed. Fortunately, The History of Sound can make up for that. Of course, a nomination is no guarantee of a win. Considering the current Oscars 2026 predictions, Mescal will likely be up against big names such as Leonardo DiCaprio, George Clooney, and Timothée Chalamet. It is too early to make a strong guess, but hopefully, Mescal can grab a nomination at least.

4

Wes Anderson’s New Movie Won’t Get Nominated At All

Wes Anderson Needs To Wow Critics For An Oscar Nom

A far less exciting prediction post Cannes nominations is that Wes Anderson’s new movie, The Phoenician Scheme, won’t receive any nominations at the 2026 Oscars. Currently, The Phoenician Scheme is up for the Palme d’Or, and is being marketed as a black comedy espionage film starring Benicio del Toro, Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, and more. Unfortunately, despite Anderson being a beloved director, his most recent work has been consistently skipped over at the Oscars. Neither 2023’s Asteroid City or 2021’s The French Dispatch earned any Oscar nominations. The Phoenician Scheme could continue this trend.

Based on Anderson’s recent Oscars absences, The Phoenician Scheme would have to really wow critics to gain a spot at the 2026 ceremony. Beyond just style and quirkiness, the movie would have to tell a compelling story that puts it on the level of more “serious” work. The last time Anderson won an Oscar for a feature film was in 2014 for The Grand Budapest H๏τel, so arguably, The Phoenician Scheme would have to offer something similar However, at this point, with the movie still weeks from its release, it seems like it will be another overlooked Anderson project.

3

Alpha Will Be The Next Anatomy Of A Fall

Alpha Benefits From A Captivating Storyline (& A Past Win)

At the 2024 Oscars, the French crime film, Anatomy of a Fall, absolutely swept, raking in five awards. A movie that could follow in those same exact footsteps is Alpha. Another Palme d’Or nominee, this movie follows an 11-year-old girl who lives in a fictional city in the 1980s and is affected by the AIDs crisis when one of her parents falls ill. The movie stars Golshifteh Farahani, Tahar Rahim, Emma Mackey, and Finnegan Oldfield, and is directed by Julia Ducournau. Though it is in English, the movie is technically French.

Like Anatomy of a Fall, Alpha benefits from having a truly compelling story. Based on the premise alone, it is clear that this will be a raw and heartbreaking movie that deals with real-life issues and the complexities of growing up. It is also a strong contender because Ducournau previously won the Palme d’Or in 2021 for her movie, тιтane. Although Alpha seems to veer away from Ducournau’s typically grotesque, horror work, it could be her most impactful work yet.

2

Eddington Will Be Ari Aster’s Very First Academy Award Nomination

Why Aster Deserves An Oscar Nom

Another well-known director with a movie premiering at Cannes in 2025 is Ari Aster. His latest movie, Eddington, is a Western black comedy which follows a small-town sheriff and a mayor whose disagreement turns into an intense standoff in the spring of 2020 in Eddington, New Mexico. The movie stars Joaquin Phoenix, Pedro Pascal, Emma Stone, Austin Butler, and Luke Grimes. Though this could be a long sH๏τ, I think Eddington has a chance of earning Aster his very first Oscar nomination, mainly because the movie diverges from his usual horror route and has his most star-studded cast yet.

Aster has yet to be nominated for an Academy Award, but his reputation precedes him. After directing horrifying movies like Hereditary and Midsommar, he has become a mᴀssive name in horror. Unfortunately, his most recent film, Beau Is Afraid, left most audiences disappointed. In this way, Eddington is Aster’s chance to not only break his typical horror mold, but do so in a successful way. With strong actors and a solid premise, this could be Aster’s chance to gain more recognition for his work.

1

Cannes Movies Will Not Sweep In 2026 Like They Did In 2025

The 2026 Oscars Will Be Full Of Surprises

Overall, my main prediction concerning the 2026 Oscars is that the current Cannes movies will not be as significant as the Cannes movies from 2024. At the 2025 Oscars, Anora took home several major prizes, and had won the Palme d’Or just months before. Yet, this year, it seems like the compeтιтion will be even more fierce between Cannes movies and other films. Major directors like Noah Baumbach, Chloé Zhao, Paul Thomas Anderson, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Guillermo Del Toro are all releasing films. Plus, franchises like Avatar and Wicked will make important bids.

The best prediction to make about the 2026 Oscars is that anything could happen. Past years have taught us that what we think will succeed may not, and vice versa. For example, Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis was anticipated to be a huge release, yet the movie itself failed to captivate viewers. Therefore, only time (and more film festivals) can tell us how the Oscars are going to play out.