Denis Villeneuve is one of the most visionary directors in cinema today, yet he still hasn’t won an Oscar despite seven acclaimed English-language releases. His upcoming movie Dune: Part Three represents his next chance at winning an Academy Award, either for Best Director or Best Picture, given the nominations and critical attention garnered by its forerunners in the Dune franchise. However, Villeneuve has an upcoming project that’s even more likely to be a contender in most of the major Oscar categories.
The director has signed on to helm a big-screen adaptation of Annie Jacobsen’s 2024 non-fiction book Nuclear War: A Scenario. This book outlines the policies of the world’s current and prospective nuclear powers, as well as what would happen to humanity and Planet Earth in the event of a hypothetical nuclear war. Any dramatized version of Jacobsen’s book will surely draw comparisons with Christopher Nolan’s 2024 Best Picture winner, Oppenheimer, as well as Best Director for Nolan.
Dune 3 Is Denis Villeneuve’s Next SH๏τ To Win An Oscar
The Third Dune Movie Is In The Running For The 2027 Oscars Based On Its Release Schedule
Nevertheless, with no release schedule yet determined for Nuclear War: A Scenario, for now all eyes are on Villeneuve’s next big project, Dune: Part Three, for which he’s already begun writing the script. This sequel to the previous two Dune movies is subтιтled Messiah, because it’s based on Frank Herbert’s second Dune novel of the same name.
The movie will pick up the story of Timothée Chalamet’s central hero, Paul Atreides, twelve years after the events of Dune: Part Two, with a Holy War in full swing following Paul’s confirmation as the messiah of the Fremen. A provisional release date for this third installment of the franchise has been penciled in for December 18, 2026, which places Dune 3 in the Oscars running for 2027.
Given the host of Oscars and other accolades that Dune: Part Two won this year, and the subsequent growth in stature of Villeneuve and the main cast, Dune 3 looks nailed on to be in the running for several more Oscars following its release. The first sequel was universally regarded as a triumph, which built on the first movie’s success to turn Dune into arguably Hollywood’s greatest sci-fi franchise of the 21st century. Still, Villeneuve’s upcoming movie is far from a guaranteed winner.
Counting On Denis Villeneuve Winning An Oscar For Dune 3 Is Risky
The Movie’s Story Might Be Too Niche To Contend For The Big Prizes
In terms of its plot and character arcs, Dune Messiah is far more difficult to render onscreen than Herbert’s original Dune novel, which was the basis for the first two movies. Its narrative is bleaker and more pessimistic, and the story could put off fans of Villeneuve’s previous movies who haven’t read the books if it’s adapted too literally. On the other hand, Villeneuve has created certain additional problems for himself by diverging from Herbert’s first novel for Dune: Part Two’s ending, particularly in relation to Paul Atreides’ status as Emperor and the character arc of Florence Pugh’s Princess Irulan.
It remains to be seen exactly how Villeneuve will resolve these potential problems with Dune 3, but its source material won’t exactly fill the movie industry with confidence. Dune fans will likely lap up what’s set to be another brilliant adaptation of Frank Herbert’s seminal science fiction series, and could perhaps enjoy the movie version of Messiah even more than Villeneuve’s first two Dune adaptations. But the mainstream film industry names who make up the Academy Awards voting pool could turn their back on the franchise, deciding that its third installment is too niche to nominate for the big Oscars.
Denis Villeneuve’s Nuclear War: A Scenario Could Be His Version Of Oppenheimer
This Apocalyptic Nuclear War Movie Should Build On Christopher Nolan’s Nightmare Vision
Conversely, Denis Villeneuve’s Nuclear War: A Scenario, looks absolutely certain to be a darling of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The movie will focus on a hypothetical nuclear apocalypse, in a similar vein to Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, only in an entirely modern setting. Its premise is reminiscent of Stanley Kubrick’s classic 1963 Cold War satire Dr. Strangelove, only for the multi-polar world of the 2020s, with Villeneuve’s own visually sweeping sci-fi spin on proceedings. There will likely be a lot fewer laughs than Kubrick’s pitch-black comedy, too, and a lot more terror.
Villeneuve’s rendering of an atom-splitting apocalypse won’t just be scattered across the movie in surrealist snippets, as Nolan’s was in Oppenheimer. It will be the action at the center of the story.
What’s more, unlike Kubrick six decades ago, Villeneuve will have the technology at his disposal to render an authentic cinematic vision of a world-consuming nuclear war. His rendering of an atom-splitting apocalypse won’t just be scattered across the movie in surrealist snippets, as Nolan’s was in Oppenheimer. It will be the action at the center of the story. This movie should be at once bone-chilling, beautiful, and gripping, emulating the genuine horror expressed in Mick Jackson’s 1984 TV film Threads, but with a more panoramic and holistic scope than any other nuclear war movie in history.
Nuclear War: A Scenario Is Denis Villeneuve’s Better Chance To Win An Oscar
History Is On The Movie’s Side When It Comes To The Academy Awards
If Villeneuve achieves what he sets out to do with Nuclear War: A Scenario, history will be on his side when it comes to the Oscars in 2027 or 2028. Not only does he have Oppenheimer as his reference point for record-breaking award wins, but visually pioneering war movies, in general, tend to do very well at the Academy Awards, especially when it comes to the biggest award of all. His film would be following in the footsteps of Platoon, Braveheart and The Hurt Locker, to name just a few, if it won the Oscar for Best Picture.
At this stage, Denis Villeneuve himself won’t be thinking in these terms. He has a new Dune movie to write, before even starting the mᴀssive amount of production work to be done both on Dune: Part Three and Nuclear War: A Scenario. When that work does begin, Villeneuve’s primary aim will be realizing his own artistic vision, which appears to be his priority for every film he makes. At the same time, if he wants to get his hands on the Oscar his career so far as a director richly deserves, then his version of Oppenheimer might be the better bet.
