Ariana Grande had hopes of winning an Oscar for Wicked, but they are dwindling unless she can secure this upcoming major award. The singer/actress is no stranger to winning awards thanks to her pop star career. Her performance as Glinda in Wicked gave her another opportunity to receive more accolades as she was repeatedly recognized by various awards shows. This included a breakthrough Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actress. Grande’s Oscar nomination fulfilled the hopes many had for her after seeing the pitch-perfect interpretation she did

Getting an Oscar nomination is one thing, but winning an Academy Award is another. Ariana Grande has found herself in a compeтιтive race against her fellow Best Supporting Actress nominees: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), and Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown). There is still plenty of appreciation for the work Grande did in Wicked, but she has not done as well in the lead-up to the Oscars as expected. The hopes of Grande’s record-breaking Oscar win now rest on an upcoming award.

Ariana Grande Has Been Losing Awards To Zoe Saldaña A Lot Recently

The Emilia Pérez Star Has Remained The Favorite

Zoe Saldaña was an early favorite for Best Supporting Actress thanks to her career-best performance in Emilia Pérez. That narrative has propelled her to continue to win at various precursor awards shows before the Oscars. In addition to several critics groups and an early win at Cannes, Saldaña beat Grande early in a pivotal race with the Golden Globes. The Wicked star has not been able to take momentum away from her, as the Emilia Pérez actress continued to win at BAFTA and Critics Choice.

As a result of Saldaña’s recent wins, she’s increased her lead over Grande to have the most wins this awards season among the Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominees; Saldaña has 17 wins, while Grande has 13. That’s not a small margin in the grand scheme of the awards race, but it’s more notable that the Glinda actress hasn’t been able to take any other major wins. She’s lost to Saldaña at every major Oscar precursor so far. The Emilia Pérez star has further established herself as the frontrunner for the Oscar win thanks to these victories.

Ariana Grande Has To Win At SAG To Have A SH๏τ At Winning The Best Supporting Actress Oscar

SAG Is The Final Oscars Precursor

If Ariana Grande wants any realistic chance to be an Oscar winner for Wicked and beat Zoe Saldaña, the SAG Awards is where she has to win. The Screen Actors Guild Awards has its ceremony on February 23rd, just one week before the 97th Academy Awards. This makes it the final precursor, and SAG is often quite predictive for the Oscars. Grande and Saldaña are both nominated for Best Supporting Actress, while Barbaro is the only other Oscar nominee among the SAG lineup. The Wicked star must win the SAG award to keep her in the race.

Another win for Zoe Saldaña at SAG would wrap up the Best Supporting Actress category a week early by all indications. The Oscars and SAG have agreed on the Best Supporting Actress winner all but nine times in 30 years. There hasn’t been a difference since 2018 when Emily Blunt won SAG for A Quiet Place, but Regina King won the Oscar for If Beale Street Could Talk. That means a win at SAG would give Grande a fighting chance to still win the Oscar. Otherwise, Saldaña’s wins at SAG, BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice become too much.

Ariana Grande Winning At SAG Could Reflect The Current Feelings Of Oscar Voters

Winning the Best Supporting Actress award at SAG might not guarantee an Oscar win for Ariana Grande, but it could help signal how Oscar voters are thinking. The SAG Awards voting period overlaps with the Oscars. The actors branch of the Academy, which is the biggest group, also includes a great number of SAG members. While other precursor awards may have had voting done before Emilia Pérez‘s controversies really developed, SAG’s voting could more accurately represent how much the controversy hurt the film’s overall standing.

However, Zoe Saldaña’s performance is not one of Emilia Pérez‘s controversial aspects. If anything, it is the one thing most viewers can agree on: that she’s great in it. That is further reason why a win at SAG would be monumental for Ariana Grande. Oscars voting might be closed by the time that win takes place, but it would indicate that actors are really supportive of her work. She could ride that support to an Oscar win then. Simply put, Ariana Grande has to win Best Supporting Actress for Wicked at SAG to make this a race.