Captain America: Brave New World‘s box office projections are looking healthy, suggesting the Marvel Cinematic Universe movie will thrive early on. After receiving the shield from Steve Rogers in Avengers: Endgame and becoming Captain America in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson is the star of Captain America: Brave New World‘s story. With the film’s trailers focusing on Sam’s Captain America in action and Harrison Ford’s Red Hulk, it seems like audiences are ready to show up for the first of the MCU’s 2025 movies, as box office projections reveal.

According to a new report from ᴅᴇᴀᴅline, Captain America: Brave New World is projected to open with $94 million over the Valentine’s Day four-day weekend domestically. The MCU movie is expected to have a $190 million global opening, including China. The number would allow Anthony Mackie’s first movie as Captain America to recoup its $180 million budget in a handful of days.

However, it would take more than that for the MCU film to be profitable, as movies need to make twice their budgets to account for marketing costs. As such, Captain America: Brave New World‘s cast has to carry the movie to at least $360 million worldwide.

What Captain America: Brave New World’s Box Office Projection Means

The MCU Movie Is On A Good Path To Being Profitable

If Captain America: Brave New World makes good on projections or even surpᴀsses them, the MCU movie will be halfway through on the path to becoming profitable. Marvel Studios is not looking at the project as a $1 billion film like Chris Evans’ latest Captain America entry, 2016’s Civil War. Mackie’s Captain America: Brave New World does not need those numbers to be a success, as a more moderate finish at $400-$600 million is very much possible and could lead to hundreds of millions in profit for the studio.

The box office projections show how Mackie’s Captain America: Brave New World compares to Chris Evans’ Captain America films. The 2025 MCU movie’s $80 million three-day domestic opening projection would have it above Evans’ first MCU movie, Captain America: The First Avenger, but below his other two solo entries as Steve Rogers. When it comes to the four-day Valentine’s Day weekend numbers, the projected $94 million would put it more or less in the same range as Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which went on to gross $714.4 million worldwide.

Our Take On Captain America: Brave New World’s Box Office Projection

Anthony Mackie’s First Movie As Captain America Could Be A Hit

I think that Captain America: Brave New World‘s box office projections are decent. Sam Wilson has been a supporting player for most of his time in the MCU, so I expected that the film would not perform like those of the major MCU heroes. That said, the projections are pretty respectable, and if the movie delivers, strong legs could carry it and make Sam’s first movie as Captain America a hit. Either way, I think the projected opening is strong enough that Captain America: Brave New World will be profitable by the end of its theatrical run.

All Announced Upcoming MCU Movies

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  Captain America: Brave New World

  Release Date

  
  February 14, 2025
  

  
  
  
  

  
  

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  Thunderbolts*

  Release Date

  
  May 2, 2025
  

  
  
  
  

  
  

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  The Fantastic Four: First Steps

  Release Date

  
  July 25, 2025
  

  
  
  
  

  
  

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  Avengers: Doomsday (2026)

  
  
  
  
  

  
  

  
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  Spider-Man Homecoming 4

  Release Date

  
  July 24, 2026
  

  
  
  
  

  
  

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  Avengers: Secret Wars

  Release Date

  
  May 7, 2027
  

  
  
  
  

  
  

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Source: ᴅᴇᴀᴅline