Just when it seemed as though Anora had lost ground in the Best Picture race, it’s now re-emerged as the Oscars 2025 frontrunner at the perfect time. Sean Baker’s movie was pinpointed as an expected awards contender from the moment it debuted at the Cannes Film Festival. The movie immediately earned rave reviews and was even awarded the festival’s top prize, the Palme d’Or. Despite the strong early success, Anora‘s shutout at the Golden Globes as The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez gained steam created a sense that the movie had faded as the Oscars 2025 predicted Best Picture winner.
That left Anora to look like the movie that peaked way too early in awards season, while The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and even A Complete Unknown found more traction following the Oscars 2025 nominations. Anora performed admirably, getting its expected six nominations in widely predicted categories. This helped keep hope alive that the film could win Best Picture if awards season broke its way from that point on. And with The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez headlining the 2025 Oscars’ biggest controversies, Anora just needed a strong showing somewhere to flip the narrative. That happened over the weekend.
Anora Won The Top Prize At PGA & Critics Choice
PGA Is A Mᴀssive Oscars Precursor
The best case scenario for Anora over the weekend played out thanks to the PGA Awards (Producers Guild of America Awards) and the Critics’ Choice Awards. Critics Choice came first and gave Anora the Best Picture win on Friday night. While the Critics Choice voters have no overlap with the Oscars, it’s still a moment to gain votes with a strong performance. The following night, the PGA Awards ceremony selected it as the winner of the top prize, the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. That’s more significant, given the PGA and Oscars overlap.
Anora is now the 36th winner of the PGA’s version of Best Picture. The voting body consists of over 8,000 producers, and many are Academy members eligible to vote on the Oscars. That helps explain the incredible track record that this award has with Best Picture. The Oscars Best Picture winner has matched with the PGA’s Outstanding Producer award 24 out of 35 times overall. The track record is even better more recently, as 12 of the last 15 Best Picture winners also won at PGA. The exceptions are 1917 (2019), La La Land (2016), and The Big Short (2015).
This provides a major boost to Anora as a Best Picture contender, especially as some of its compeтιтors falter. The movie was already thought to make up some ground on The Brutalist or Emilia Pérez thanks to the Oscars’ preferential ballot used for Best Picture, which could hurt two more divisive films. Anora is more of a crowdpleaser that could appeal to most voters and put it high on the weighted ballot, even if it isn’t at the very top.
Anora winning at PGA is notable for the film itself, but it also helps that it beat The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez to do so. Those films won the top prizes at the Golden Globes, which has an international voting body. With the Academy significantly diversifying its members in recent years and expanding with more international voters, there was an argument to be made that The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez were bigger hits abroad than Anora. The PGAs could have continued that momentum and given either a stronghold over Best Picture. Instead, Anora solidified a spot as a legitimate contender.
Sean Baker DGA Win Is Another Huge Boost For Anora’s Best Picture Oscar Chances
Sean Baker Becomes The Best Director Oscars Frontrunner
Right before Anora won at PGA, Sean Baker celebrated a victory at the DGA Awards (Directors’ Guild of America Awards). His peers selected him as the DGA Best Director winner. That’s a significant development for the Oscars 2025 Best Director race, as the DGA and Oscars winners have matched every year except for eight times. Baker suddenly becomes the favorite to win Best Director at the Oscars thanks to this outcome.
The Best Director Oscar winner has come from the Best Picture winner 69 times in the previous 96 years
Winning Best Director is often a strong indicator as to what movie is going to win Best Picture at the Oscars. The Best Director Oscar winner has come from the Best Picture winner 69 times in the previous 96 years. Narrowing that scope down to more relevant times, the Best Director and Best Picture Oscar winners still align 15 times in the last 24 years. It’s also matched four of the last five years. That means nearly two-thirds of the movies that win Best Director go on to win Best Picture.
If Sean Baker goes on to win Best Director at the Oscars, there is an even greater chance that Anora wins Best Picture. Although Baker is deserving of his nomination and potential win as a director, he was previously considered more of a second-tier contender in the category. The potential of him now winning Best Director would signal that the love for Anora in the Academy is accurate and would strongly signal that its name could be called for Best Picture.
Anora’s Awards Season Surge Comes Right As Oscar Voting Is About To Begin
Oscars Voting Kicks Off On February 11th
Anora‘s new wins at Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA are significant not only historically but also in terms of timing of recognition, which should also work in the film’s favor. The movie has been looking for a chance to pop again in the awards conversation after having so much acclaim early on. Winning at Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA give it that opportunity, with Sean Baker able to deliver multiple acceptance speeches that could get Oscar voters to think about Anora more. That’s important since these victories come days before Oscar voting officially begins.
Academy members are able to start voting for winners in all Oscars 2025 categories on February 11, 2025. Final ballots are due a week later on February 18. Anora has now surged at the best possible time then. It is the movie that three of the final precursors recognized in the most significant categories. WGA and BAFTA will still name their winners during the Oscar voting period, so the results of both ceremonies could bring some voters to reconsider their ballots before everything is finalized.
The WGA Awards are on February 15, and the BAFTA Awards are on February 16
Anora has a chance to further strengthen its Best Picture frontrunner status through WGA and BAFTA. It has 7 BAFTA nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director, so wins in both categories would be huge. However, the BAFTAs also tend to favor British films, which is why there is some thought that Conclave could win. Anora is only one of two Oscar nominees for Best Original Screenplay to earn a nomination in the same category at WGA. If it wins there and beats A Real Pain, momentum will continue in its favor.
It’s worth noting that Anora winning at WGA could also boost its Best Picture contention status. The Original Screenplay Oscar has gone to a WGA nominee 32 times in the last 40 years. The WGA winner then won the Oscar in 24 of those 32 instances. Seven movies won Original Screenplay at WGA and the Oscars and also won Best Picture. Those odds aren’t incredible, but another win for Anora at WGA would still keep the film at the forefront of voters’ minds at the most important time.
Anora Is The Clear Frontrunner To Win Best Picture At The Oscars Now
But Will It Maintain Its New Status?
Anora is unmistakably the frontrunner to win Best Picture thanks to this recent success. It has the support of producers and directors, which will be important during Oscars voting. Although the actor’s branch is the largest in the Academy, Anora should also do well with them in the Best Picture voting – even if Demi Moore wins Best Actress over Mikey Madison. The full strength of the support actors have for the movie will become more clear on February 23 when the SAG Awards are held. If Anora wins the Ensemble Cast award, the Best Picture race will practically be wrapped up.
This does mean that there is still room for Anora to lose ground and watch another movie win Best Picture. However, it’s becoming a bit more difficult to figure out what movie will unseat it. The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez may be too divisive to win, while Dune: Part Two and The Substance are too genre-based, and I’m Still Here and Nickel Boys are too small to contend seriously. Conclave missed out on some key categories that hurt its odds too. That leaves only Wicked and A Complete Unknown.
It is not unfathomable that Wicked or A Complete Unknown could win Best Picture. Both should do well on the preferential ballot and have good chances to win key other categories: Timothée Chalamet in Best Actor and Ariana Grande in Best Supporting Actress. However, it would take a really significant push for either film to overtake Anora unless another unexpected awards season controversy emerges. The race isn’t officially over, as The Brutalist or Emilia Pérez overcoming their controversies is still possible, but Anora is in the best position right now to win Best Picture in a few weeks.
