Love Hurts and Heart Eyes each have an uphill battle at the box office if either hopes to debut at No. 1. Both themed тιтles are debuting on the weekend before Valentine’s Day 2025, facing off to see which will connect the most with general audiences over the weekend. Love Hurts is an action-comedy movie featuring recent Everything Everywhere All At Once Oscar winner Ke Huy Quan as a seemingly wholesome realtor whose past as an ᴀssᴀssin catches up with him. The star-studded cast of the movie also includes Ariana DeBose, Daniel Wu, Marshawn Lynch, Rhys Darby, and Sean Astin.

Heart Eyes, which was directed by Josh Ruben, was written by Michael Kennedy and Christopher Landon (re-teaming after their 2020 body-swap slasher Freaky) alongs with Phillip Murphy. Specifically set on Valentine’s Day, it follows a pair of coworkers who are mistaken for a couple by a masked serial killer who begins to target them, turning the holiday into a nightmare. Scream (2022) and Scream VI star Mason Gooding and Totally Killer star Olivia Holt lead the Heart Eyes cast, which also includes Gigi Zumbado, Michaela Watkins, and Jordana Brewster, with Final Destination, Chucky, and Idle Hands alumnus Devon Sawa.

Love Hurts’ Opening Weekend Box Office Projections

It Should Come In Below $10 Million

Per the latest forecast from Variety, as of February 5, the Love Hurts release is expected to debut at the domestic box office with a 3-day opening weekend total of $7 million. This is roughly in the middle of the $5 to $10 million range previously shown by its long-range forecast in late January. This would also be the third-best domestic opening so far for a 2025 action movie, behind Den of Thieves: Pantera ($15 million) and Flight Risk ($11.6 million).

Heart Eyes’ Opening Weekend Box Office Projections

It Is Eking Out A Lead Over Love Hurts

Love Hurts‘ slasher movie compeтιтor was also previously projected to open in the $5 to $10 million range. That forecast has not changed, though the Variety report shows the Heart Eyes release turning out a stronger debut than the action-comedy with a 3-day opening weekend total of $8 million. This would mark the third-best domestic debut for a 2025 horror movie so far, behind Wolf Man ($10.9 million) and Companion ($9.3 million).

Both Love Hurts and Heart Eyes come with reported budgets of $18 million, so both are currently expecting to earn back about half that total during the February 7 weekend. Considering the fact that movies typically need to earn roughly two and a half times their budgets in order to turn a profit in theaters, this likely places their break-even points somewhere around $45 million. Both тιтles therefore have an uphill battle toward profitability regardless of which is the victor on the chart.

Smaller Releases For February 7 & Box Office Projections

Indie Releases, International Features, & More Are Also Coming To Theaters

With two major new releases hitting theaters on February 7, there are not too many notable small releases hitting theaters around the same time. However, a few specialized releases are projected to make small ripples at the domestic box office over the weekend, including the limited release debut of the music documentary Becoming Led Zeppelin and an IMAX re-release of the 2019 Best Picture winner Parasite, which was directed by Bong Joon-ho. Below, see a breakdown of the weekend’s smaller new releases and their domestic box office projections from Box Office Theory, if any:

Other movies that are set to arrive in limited release on the weekend of February 7 include Paolo Sorrentino’s coming-of-age drama Parthenope, which premiered in compeтιтion at Cannes in 2024, the Ireland-based thriller Bring Them Down, which stars Barry Keoghan and Christopher Abbott, the Norwegian drama Armand, which stars The Worst Person in the World breakout Renate Reinsve, and the apocalyptic road trip movie When I’m Ready, which features appearances by Lauren Cohan and Dermot Mulroney. None of these movies should make enough of a splash at the box office to topple either Love Hurts or Heart Eyes.

Dog Man Is Projected To Easily Win The February 7th Weekend

The Powerhouse Animated Hit Is In Its Second Weekend

Although some other new releases have the chance to land spots in the overall Top 10 at the domestic box office, the true compeтιтion for both Heart Eyes and Love Hurts is the ongoing Dog Man release. The movie, which is a spinoff from 2017’s Captain Underpants and is based on the Dav Pilkey graphic novel series of the same name, is DreamWorks Animation’s 50th feature film and debuted on the last day of January. It took No. 1 with a debut haul of $36 million and is projected to earn between $19 and $22 million in its sophomore weekend.

Given the fact that its opening weekend earned more than the projected debuts of Love Hurts and Heart Eyes combined, it seems practically inevitable that Dog Man will take No. 1 during its sophomore weekend as well. For it to fall below the current projections of Heart Eyes, it would have to have a week-on-week drop of 77.8%, which would tie for the 37th worst week 2 drop of all time. This is highly unlikely, considering the fact that it has garnered overwhelmingly positive reviews from audiences, earning a solidly Fresh 85% score on the Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter.

Predicted Top 10 Box Office For February 7-9, 2025

The Chart Goes Way Beyond The Top 3

In addition to Dog Man, there are quite a few holdover тιтles vying for chart positions at the domestic box office alongside Heart Eyes, Love Hurts, and the smaller new releases. This includes new 2025 releases such as Flight Risk, Companion, and One of Them Days, in addition to 2024 hits including Mufasa: The Lion King, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, Moana 2, and the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown, which have remained in the Top 10 for weeks running. Below, see one way that the Top 10 could look by the end of the weekend of February 7:

While the two new releases are still neck and neck at the time of writing, glowing Heart Eyes reviews could help push it over the edge, advancing the lead that current projections are showing. It has earned a strong 89% score from critics on Rotten Tomatoes at the time of writing, whereas Love Hurts reviews are still being held off, which could betray the fact that the studio is nervous it will receive a Rotten score. However, the slasher movie’s lead still more than likely puts it at No. 2 behind Dog Man, the more or less undisputed champion.

Sources: Variety & Box Office Theory