Flight Risk has a chance to debut at No. 1. The 2025 movie, which is a claustrophobic thriller set on a plane, was directed by Mel Gibson, who has previously helmed mᴀssive hits including 2004’s The Pᴀssion of the Christ (which grossed $612.1 million against a $30 million budget) and the 1995 Best Picture winner Braveheart (which grossed $209 million against roughly $72 million). The thriller is led by Gibson’s Daddy’s Home 2 co-star Mark Wahlberg, whose huge roster of No. 1 movies includes Uncharted, Transformers: The Last Knight, Pain & Gain, Transformers: Age of Extinction, 2 Guns, and Ted.

Although the Flight Risk cast is small, it is star-studded. In addition to featuring Wahlberg in an atypically villainous role as a mob hitman masquerading as the pilot of a small aircraft, it features That ’70s Show and Spider-Man 3 star Topher Grace as the informant who is his target. The movie also features Downton Abbey star Michelle Dockery, who is a four-time Emmy nominee, as a Deputy U.S. Marshal escorting the latter. Thus, the movie is set up for potential success when it debuts in theaters on January 24 as one of the first major new releases of 2025.

Flight Risk Opening Weekend Box Office Projections

It Could Become 2025’s Second No. 1 Movie

At the time of writing, the opening weekend of Mel Gibson’s Flight Risk is projected to have somewhat lukewarm results. While the movie’s budget was likely relatively slim given its limited cast and locations, as of January 17, Boxoffice Pro‘s long-range forecast showed the movie debuting at the domestic box office in a range between $10 million and $17 million. As its opening weekend drew closer, its prospects diminished somewhat, as Box Office Theory‘s projections as of January 22 show the lower bound of its range shrinking to $7 million, with its upper bound only coming in at $12 million.

A roughly $10 million debut could put Flight Risk on track to break even depending on its budget, but it is unknown if this total will be enough for it to debut at No. 1 on the domestic box office chart. However, it is the biggest new wide release movie of the weekend, which could mean that it will essentially be No. 1 by default. This would make it the second No. 1 debut so far for a 2025 release, after Den of Thieves 2: Pantera topped the chart with its $15 million opening during the weekend of January 10.

Smaller Releases For January 24 & Box Office Projections

Flight Risk Debuts Opposite A New Steven Soderbergh Movie & More

While it is the most prominent new release of the weekend, Flight Risk does have some compeтιтion in the form of several smaller тιтles that will premiere on the same day. Of these, the most prominent is Steven Soderbergh’s Presence, a haunted house movie that sees the director experimenting with the tropes of the horror genre. Also set to debut are the Jared Harris-led Angel Studios drama Brave the Dark, the Phoebe Dynevor spy thriller Inheritance, the Japanese animated movie The Colors Within, and more. Below, see a breakdown of the weekend’s smaller new releases and their most up-to-date projections:

For the most part, projections for smaller тιтles (which also include the Emile Hirsch romantic drama Bau: Artist at War) are unavailable, but the Box Office Theory forecast does not expect any new releases to join the domestic Top 10 except Flight Risk and Brave the Dark. While Angel Studios has not yet matched the success of their 2023 hit Sound of Freedom, which debuted with $19.7 million, their follow-up faith-based offerings have debuted at an average of $5 million, setting a precedent that Brave the Dark is likely to follow, though it seems destined to fall below Flight Risk.

One Of Them Days & Mufasa Could Battle For The #1 Spot This Weekend Once Again

Flight Risk Has Major Compeтιтion From Holdover Hits

The factor that could most threaten Flight Risk‘s No. 1 status is the ongoing box office battle between the previous weekend’s new release comedy One of Them Days and the ongoing Mufasa: The Lion King release. The 2024 pH๏τorealistic CG-animated Disney prequel took No. 1 over Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend in a surprise upset, but it was neck and neck with the Keke Palmer comedy. As One of Them Days heads into its sophomore weekend and Mufasa continues into its sixth, they could both provide major compeтιтion for the incoming thriller, especially considering its shrinking opening weekend projections.

If Flight Risk lands at the top of its projected range and earns $12 million, it will easily take No. 1. The previous weekend, Mufasa: The Lion King only earned $12 million, while One of Them Days grossed $11.8 million. As it is unlikely that either movie will earn more on the weekend of January 24 than they did over the holiday weekend, both should fall significantly below $12 million. However, if their week-on-week drops are slim enough, they could still force the movie out of the No. 1 slot if it hits its lower end and makes $7 million.

Predicted Top 10 Box Office For January 24-26, 2025

Flight Risk Should At Least Be In The Top 3

Regardless of where Flight Risk lands in its range, the Mark Wahlberg thriller seems likely to end up in the Top 3 movies at the domestic box office during its opening weekend, even if it loses the compeтιтion to both Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days. Even with a number of other 2024 holdover hits maintaining positions on the chart, the fact that it is a new release should help buoy it above the other movies in theaters. Below, see one possible way that the Top 10 chart could look by the end of Sunday, January 26:

Ultimately, it seems most likely that Flight Risk will debut at No. 2. Although it has many elements working in its favor, January 2025 has seen a number of lukewarm debuts, and at the time of writing it does not seem that the domestic box office will have a new release become a major runaway hit until at least mid-February, when Captain America: Brave New World and Paddington in Peru debut. However, the Wahlberg movie does not yet have a Rotten Tomatoes score, so its debut prospects could shift up or down depending on whether critics love or hate it.

Source(s): BoxofficePro, Box Office Theory