Early box office tracking for Captain America: Brave New World indicate a debut domestic opening ranging between $81-107 million. This report from Box Office Theory also places the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s total domestic haul at a range of $195 million to $280 million. These numbers are fairly standard among previous Captain America films, with the notable exception of Captain America: Civil War. According to Box Office Mojo, the first Captain America film opened on the lower end at $65 million, while Captain America: The Winter Soldier debuted with a $95 million domestic weekend gross.

Captain America: Civil War broke this trend with a mᴀssive $179 million domestic opening, but it is worth noting that this installment in the franchise had the star power of the entire Avengers cast, as well as the first MCU appearances of Black Panther and Spider-Man. As such, Captain America: Brave New World may not measure up to the heights of the Captain America franchise, but it will probably be a median performer in terms of its domestic opening.

Aside from its comparison to other MCU films, Captain America: Brave New World is likely to outperform its primary compeтιтion for its opening weekend, Paddington in Peru. The latter film is projected to earn between $16-25 million during its first three days in theaters, meaning that the former will likely claim the top box office slot that weekend.

What Captain America 4’s Box Office Projections Mean

Captain America: Brave New World’s early box office numbers indicate that the film will have a modestly successful opening weekend. This latest MCU film will likely not reach the heights of ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool & Wolverine, which had an opening weekend of $211 million, but it will likely land in the range of previous Captain America films. Moreover, it is projected to avoid underperfoming during its debut weekend, as The Marvels did with its opening domestic gross of $46 million.

However, another consideration is Captain America: Brave New World’s overall projected domestic gross. Captain America: The First Avenger made $176 million, and Captain America: The Winter Soldier made $259 million, while Captain America: Civil War made $408 million, all domestically. It is unrealistic to expect that Captain America: Brave New World will do Captain America: Civil War numbers, but otherwise, the film is tracking to be on par with the rest of the franchise.

Our Take On Captain America 4’s Box Office Projections

There is good and bad news with Captain America: Brave New World’s projections. The positive thing is that Anthony Mackie taking over as Captain America from Chris Evans doesn’t appear to be negatively affecting the film’s box office tracking. Alternatively, the film could still be a flop, as it has a reported budget of around $350 million to $375 million. Whether or not this is a problem will depend on how Captain America: Brave New World performs overseas, as the domestic haul is not projected to cover the production costs.

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