From the possible underperformance of Avatar: Fire and Ash to the possible success of A Minecraft Movie, 2025’s box office predictions promise some big surprises. It’s been an interesting few years for the box office since the pandemic hit in 2020. There have been box office failures no one could’ve predicted, like Marvel Studios releasing a historic flop. But there have also been plenty of success stories that no one could’ve predicted, either, like 2023’s “Barbenheimer” phenomenon. 2024 brought some huge surprises at the box office, like the success of Longlegs and the failure of Joker: Folie à Deux.

2025 is set to be another fascinating year for the film industry. Marvel is back to releasing three movies a year, Paul Thomas Anderson is putting out his most expensive film to date, and James Cameron is delivering another Avatar sequel. There are some 2025 movies whose fate seems to have been decided. Thunderbolts* is getting a lot of positive buzz from its trailers, so it’ll probably be a sizable hit. Mickey 17, on the other hand, is an unabashedly weird movie with a very steep budget, so it’s likely to flop. But 2025’s box office could yield some surprises.

10

Avatar: Fire & Ash Won’t Be 2025’s Highest Grossing Movie

Since James Cameron is releasing a new Avatar movie in 2025, it seems as though all the other blockbusters will just be playing for second place. The first and second Avatar movies were the highest-grossing movies of their respective years by far. Avatar: Fire and Ash is practically guaranteed to make another $2 billion and sit comfortably in the top spot at the 2025 box office. But what if that’s not the case?

For all the talk that Avatar has had no cultural impact, its movies sure seem to be popular. Cameron’s stunning visuals demand to be seen on the biggest screen possible with a pair of 3D glᴀsses, so they get audiences out to theaters to buy the most expensive ticket there. Fire and Ash will undoubtedly be a huge success, but it might not be the highest-grossing film of the year. There’s a lot of highly anticipated тιтles coming out in 2025.

9

A Minecraft Movie Will Be A Huge Success

After the success of HBO’s The Last of Us, Prime Video’s Fallout, and Illumination’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Hollywood seems adamant to turn every recognizable video game franchise into a movie or TV show. On April 4, Minecraft is coming to the big screen in a film adaptation aptly тιтled A Minecraft Movie. When the trailer for A Minecraft Movie dropped, it was criticized for its lack of faithfulness to the source material and its bizarre tone.

Based on that reaction to the marketing, it seems to be a flop in the making. But don’t underestimate the size of Minecraft as an intellectual property. This game has millions of fans around the world, and even if the movie is terrible, a large chunk of that fan base will likely check it out just for the memes, or for the so-bad-it’s-good quality.

8

Captain America: Brave New World Will Be The MCU’s Biggest Box Office Hit

Marvel Studios is releasing three movies this year: Captain America: Brave New World, the first solo movie starring Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson as Cap; Thunderbolts*, about a team of reformed supervillains coming together, a la the Suicide Squad; and The Fantastic Four: First Steps, a reboot of Marvel’s first family. The Fantastic Four is generally expected to be the biggest hit of the three, based on the brand recognition and the star-studded ensemble cast.

But the Fantastic Four name has been tarnished by previous adaptations that were each more disappointing than the last. Thunderbolts* revolves around B-list characters, so it’s unlikely to come out on top. But Captain America: Brave New World could surprise pundits by becoming the MCU’s biggest success of the year. Sam isn’t as popular as Steve Rogers, but Red Hulk could get people talking.

7

Wicked: For Good Will Make $1 Billion

Jon M. Chu’s Wicked, adapted from the first half of the Broadway musical, was one of the highest-grossing movies of 2024. Wicked’s worldwide box office haul soared past $600 million, and it’s still going strong. The second volume — originally called Wicked: Part Two, but since reтιтled as Wicked: For Good — is set to be released later this year on November 21. Wicked: For Good will complete the story, with Chu and all the major cast members returning.

Although Wicked has been a mᴀssive box office success, it’s still a far cry from $1 billion, and it’s unlikely to hit that milestone. Wicked: For Good, on the other hand, might break the billion-dollar barrier. By the time it comes out, some audiences who missed the first part in theaters will have watched it at home and gotten excited about the second part, which could boost the numbers.

6

The Naked Gun Reboot Will Be The Long-Awaited Comeback For The Comedy Genre

With the odd exception like Barbie and ᴅᴇᴀᴅpool & Wolverine, it’s been a while since comedy was a viable genre at the box office. It’s tough to sell comedies internationally, because they often rely on local reference points that don’t cross the language barrier. In the 2000s and 2010s, studios could rely on DVD sales to recoup their theatrical losses, but DVD sales are drastically down in the age of streaming. For years, the comedy genre has been in need of a comeback at the box office.

On August 1, Paramount is releasing a reboot of The Naked Gun franchise starring Liam Neeson as Frank Drebin. Since it has franchise recognition, if it’s well-received, it could be a huge hit at the domestic box office. And since The Naked Gun uses sight gags and slapstick humor, it might even translate internationally.

5

Elio Will Be Pixar’s Biggest Original Film Since Coco

Pixar enjoyed a major comeback last year with the box office success of Inside Out 2. The studio’s commercial performance had been hit-and-miss for a couple of years. Onward underperformed right at the beginning of the pandemic, Elemental made a decent profit but fell far short of Pixar’s biggest hits, and Lightyear — linked to Pixar’s most reliable franchise — was an outright flop. But Inside Out 2 was a bona fide smash hit: the highest-grossing movie of 2024 and the highest-grossing animated movie of all time.

On June 13, Pixar is releasing a new original movie, Elio, a sci-fi adventure about a young boy being whisked away by aliens. After Inside Out 2 rehabilitated the Pixar brand, Elio is in good stead for box office success. If it’s as touching and spectacular as the trailer promises, it could be Pixar’s biggest original movie since Coco.

4

Paul Thomas Anderson’s New Movie Will Turn A Decent Profit

Boogie Nights director Paul Thomas Anderson has an as-yet-unтιтled movie set to arrive in theaters on August 8. No official details have been revealed about the film’s plot, but it’s rumored to be a modernized adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland. It’s also said to be Anderson’s most action-packed film to date, with The Battle of Baktan Cross floated as a potential тιтle. It’s also the most expensive film of Anderson’s career by far.

Anderson’s latest effort carries a hefty budget of $140 million, which will require it to gross at least $300 million worldwide to turn a profit (via Variety). Warner Bros. is banking on Leonardo DiCaprio’s star power to boost the film’s commercial returns, but Anderson has never had a hit of that scale. His highest-grossing movie, There Will Be Blood, grossed just $76 million — a little over half the budget of his latest. The movie seems destined to bomb, but it could surprise everyone and turn a decent profit beyond the $300 million margin.

3

Michael Will Become The New Highest Grossing Music Biopic

One of the most popular trends in Hollywood right now is biopics of popular bands and musicians. Some of these biopics have underperformed, but a lot of them have yielded blockbuster box office returns, like Elvis, Rocketman, and Straight Outta Compton. Audiences mainly come to these movies for the chance to hear iconic music out of giant theatrical speakers. As it stands, the highest-grossing music biopic is Bohemian Rhapsody, which grossed $910 million off an awesome soundtrack full of Queen’s classics.

On October 3, Lionsgate is releasing Michael, a big-budget biopic of Michael Jackson chronicling his life from his childhood work with the Jackson 5 to his death in 2009. The King of Pop will be played by his own nephew, Jaafar Jackson. While Jackson remains a controversial figure, his music is still popular enough that Michael could be an even bigger hit than Bohemian Rhapsody.

2

Five Nights At Freddy’s 2 Will Outgross The First Movie

In 2023, Five Nights at Freddy’s broke a bunch of box office records. Despite receiving mostly negative reviews from critics, and being released on Peacock on the same day it arrived in theaters, Five Nights at Freddy’s managed to gross $284.1 million at the worldwide box office. It had the biggest opening weekend for a Halloween release, the biggest opening for a Blumhouse production, and became the highest-grossing horror movie of 2023.

This success is a testament to how popular the Five Nights at Freddy’s games are. The movie was filled with Easter eggs for long-time fans and those long-time fans responded enthusiastically. The impeccable box office run of the first movie will be tough to top, but there’s a sequel coming out on December 5, and if it puts fan service first again, it could be an even bigger hit.

1

Superman Won’t Make Enough For James Gunn’s New DCU To Be Viable

James Gunn’s rebooted DC Universe is set to begin proper in 2025 with the release of Superman. There’s a lot more riding on Superman than the average big-budget tentpole movie. It doesn’t have to just make back its production budget and marketing costs; it has to make enough money to justify launching a shared cinematic universe to rival that of Marvel. The first Superman trailer has all the promising signs of a satisfying reboot: bright colors, faithful characterization, and a powerful sense of hope.

But even if Gunn delivers the greatest Superman movie ever made, it still might not gross enough to make the DCU viable. The past decade’s worth of flops and disappointments have seriously damaged the DC brand. Gunn’s Superman reboot looks fantastic, but it might not be enough to redeem DC in casual audiences’ eyes.

Source: Variety